What Current FBI Data Shows About Violent Crime

Violent crime is a major issue in the US election, and research suggests many Americans believe it is on the rise.

But the latest FBI crime data shows it has declined over the past year.

The much-anticipated report, released in September, shows declines in several serious crimes, including rape, robbery and aggravated assault.

According to the FBI, the number of murders has fallen more sharply than it has in 20 years.

Violent crimes recorded by the FBI include homicides, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults, which are reported to and recorded by law enforcement.

It is latest report shows that violent crime fell by an estimated 3% between 2022 and 2023.

Homicide and non-negligent homicide fell 12%, the largest decline in the past 20 years.

The report also shows declines in:

• Rape by 9%
• Robbery by 0.3%
• Serious bodily harm by 3%

In 2023, the FBI recorded a rate of 363.8 violent crimes per 100,000 people, compared to the rate of 377.1 violent crimes per 100,000 people in 2022.

The agency revised the violent crime rate between 2021 and 2022.

There was previously a 2.1% decline in this period, but now the agency reports an increase of 4.5%.

The FBI did not publicize this change, which has led to some criticism.

Ames Grawert, crime researcher at the Brennan Center for Justice, told BBC Verify that the revision was “likely the result of a change in the way the FBI collects crime data in 2021.”

“There is nothing here that undermines confidence in the 2023 data,” he argues.

Providing data to the FBI is voluntary and some police forces have not done so in recent years.

In 2021, the participation rate was around two-thirds because many authorities – including in New York and Los Angeles – did not transmit data to a new FBI system.

Donald Trump regularly criticizes the FBI data and his website says that “nearly a third of the nation’s law enforcement agencies are missing – including in many of the most violent cities such as Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Oakland and New Orleans.”

But participation has steadily improved, and by 2023, more than 85% of agencies registered in the FBI’s data collection system have submitted figures.

According to the FBI, every city agency covering a population of one million or more provided a full 12 months of data in 2023.

Daniel Flannery, a professor of violence prevention research, says that it is usually the smaller authorities that do not report data.

“Many of them don’t have their own data people. Suburban and rural communities tend to be the ones that don’t submit the data because they don’t have the resources,” he says.

The other way to track violent crime in the United States is through a nationwide survey of about a quarter of a million people.

The National Crime Victimization Survey asks them whether they have been victims of crime and whether they have reported these crimes to the police (in 2023, only about half of them did so).

Violent crimes recorded in the survey include rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault and simple assault. Murder doesn’t count.

Donald Trump regularly highlights this survey as evidence that “national violent crime has increased 40% since 2020.”

This number is correct, they say Current Crime Survey Statistics.

They show that violent crime per 1,000 residents actually increased by this amount between 2020 and 2023.

However, Trump draws a comparison with a year in which violent crime – measured by the survey – was significantly lower.

Prof Flannery says: “If you pick a year during Covid that might have the lowest crime rates, you’re picking two points in time compared to a year where there’s more of a return to normality.” A comparison of 2023 with a year ago Covid might be more appropriate.”

The survey states: “Although the rate in 2023 was higher than that in 2020 and 2021, it was not statistically different from that five years ago, in 2019.”

FBI data shows violent crime rates have fallen by a quarter over the past two decades.

On the decline in violent crime, Prof Flannery says this is partly because we are becoming better at understanding what drives violent crime, which is typically a small number of people in a community who commit repeated crimes. It’s also about a targeted police strategy and intervention.”

Marc Levin, chief policy counsel at the Council on Criminal Justice, says other factors could have an impact on reducing crime.

“We don’t know all the reasons for the fluctuation in crime, but some of it is obviously demographic. We are an aging society, which should generally lead to less crime.

“There are also environmental factors such as street lighting that help prevent crime. There is evidence that this leads potential perpetrators of crimes such as robbery and car theft to believe they will get caught,” he argues.