With LES, Jake Retzlaff rocks the Cougars to another dominant win?

In Friday night’s main matchup, the Oklahoma State Cowboys travel to Provo to take on the up-and-coming BYU Cougars team. While one of those teams was originally considered a potential Big 12 powerhouse in the new-look college football landscape, it’s Kilani Sitake’s Cougars who are chasing their College Football Playoff dreams in the eighth week of the showdown.

Will the Cowboys rediscover their spark or will the Cougars maintain their momentum? Dive into our Oklahoma State vs. BYU prediction for all the insights.

Oklahoma State vs. BYU betting preview

All of Georgia versus Texas Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are as of Friday, October 18, 2024. CFN spreads are from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

• CFN FPM spread
  BYU-10
• Spread
  BYU-9
• Money line
  BYU -340, Oklahoma State +270
• Over/Under
  53 points
• Playtime
  10:15 p.m. ET
• Location
  LaVell Edwards Stadium | Provo, UT
• Predicted weather at Kick
  48 degrees, partly sunny, six mph wind
• Here’s how to watch
  ESPN

BYU began the week as an 8.5-point favorite, but as the week progressed the official oddsmaker’s line closed at the original CFN-FPM spread. Meanwhile, the money line has expanded in the Cougars’ favor as the team looks for a seventh win of the 2024 college football season. BYU is one of only two teams in the country to have a perfect record entering the game.

MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is 2-4 and failed to cover (by a significant margin) in the only game in which they were an underdog this season. You will be hard-pressed to find clearer trend indicators pointing to an inevitable outcome. Although teams have reached the over more often this year, Oklahoma State hasn’t scored more than 20 points in its last three games.

Oklahoma State’s probability of winning

FPM isn’t particularly high for the Cowboys after three straight losses. According to the metric, the Cowboys have a 23.4% chance of winning the game, which is an implied margin of about 10 points. If the Cowboys pull off the upset, they can salvage the season with a favorable schedule to end the year.

Here are their win probabilities for the rest of the season:

• at BYU: 23.4%
• at Baylor: 64.6%
• vs. Arizona State: 50.8%
• at TCU: 57.4%
• vs Texas Tech: 51.8%
• in Colorado: 53.4%

BYU’s probability of winning

Conversely, the Cougars have a 76.6% chance of winning the game. This game represents BYU’s second toughest challenge remaining on the schedule, and the Cougars can continue their magical season if they beat Oklahoma State.

Here are their win probabilities for the rest of the season:

• vs. Oklahoma State: 76.6%
• at UCF: 81.1%
• in Utah: 50.0%
• against Kansas: 87.8%
• in the state of Arizona: 74.6%
• against Houston: 93.5%

Prediction for Oklahoma State vs. BYU

Oklahoma State travels to Provo at a critical time in its season. After three straight losses, the Cowboys are on the verge of fading into obscurity, but Mike Gundy has the talent to string together wins and restore some level of respectability.

LaVell Edwards Stadium is one of the toughest venues in college football, even when BYU isn’t at its best, and home-field advantage is a big factor for the Cougars. A Friday night game for an undefeated team? This place will be electric.

Furthermore, the Cougars are right on all fronts. Their success relies on a defense that excels at neutralizing the enemy’s greatest threats. While it was supposed to be Ollie Gordon for Oklahoma State, it was Alan Bowman who took the lead this season, teaming up with a talented trio of receivers.

Oklahoma State’s offense has been inconsistent, but it wouldn’t be surprising if they had a stronger performance on Friday. However, it might not be enough.

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The Cowboys’ defense is in disarray, and with BYU’s offense steadily improving throughout the season, this matchup is the biggest mismatch.

I expect BYU to dominate time of possession and wear down Oklahoma State’s struggling defense. As they have done several times this season, look for the Cougars to pull away in the later stages after frustrating Oklahoma State early on.

Take the Cougars and the points while keeping the total just under.

Forecast: BYU 31, Oklahoma State 17

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