Alabama vs. Tennessee Prediction: Who Will Win and Why?

The third Saturday in October brings us one of college football’s best Southern rivalries from one of the greatest venues in the country: No. 11 Tennessee hosts No. 7 Alabama this weekend. Here’s what to expect when the Crimson Tide meets and Volunteers should watch with our updated prediction for the game.

Tennessee got off to a slow start and showed enough offense to finally prevail over rival Florida over the weekend, with a 5-1 overall record and a 2-1 mark in SEC play that includes a stunning loss to Arkansas two weeks ago , which is not in the rankings.

Alabama is coming off a very close decision at home against South Carolina, trailing late in this game and almost giving up the game after a special teams fumble that put the Gamecocks in scoring position, but the Crimson Tide had a solution to a to prevent further big game upset.

What can we expect when the Crimson Tide and Volunteers meet in this classic SEC rivalry?

Here’s what to look for when Alabama and Tennessee meet in this Week 8 college football game, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Alabama is No. 10 nationally in scoring offense, averaging 41.7 points per game with 35 touchdowns and just 1 field goal, and scores a total of 250 points.

Bama ranks 51st in FBS in rushing, averages just over 179 yards per game on the ground, scores 23 touchdowns, the third-most in college football, and has a solid 5.02 yards per carry average .

Alabama faces a Tennessee rush defense that ranks 5th nationally, allowing just under 80 yards per game on the ground and giving up just 2.24 yards per carry and just 3 touchdowns.

The Crimson Tide ranks 29th in the country in third-down offense, converting 32 of 69 opportunities for a 46.38 percent success rate.

Tennessee is a dominant No. 2 player in the FBS on third-down defense, allowing just 20 conversions on 83 attempts, a success rate of just 24.1 percent.

Alabama scored 20 points on 24 opportunities in the red zone (83.3%), and nearly 80 percent of those points (19) came for touchdowns.

Tennessee ranks 6th in the FBS in red zone defense, allowing opponents to score on 12 of 19 chances, but only 6 of those points (32%) are touchdowns.

Jalen Milroe completes nearly 73 percent of his pass attempts while rushing for 1,483 yards with 12 touchdowns and 4 interceptions while being sacked 11 times.

A talented dual-threat, Milroe is second on the team with 319 rushing yards on 77 carries, an average of 4.1 yards per touch and a remarkable 11 touchdowns, leading the Tide in that category.

Jam Miller is Alabama’s primary rushing threat in terms of yardage (360), averaging 7.1 yards per carry while scoring 5 of Alabama’s 23 rushing touchdowns.

Justice Haynes has 3 touchdowns and averages 6.4 yards per rush for a total of 249 yards.

Wide receiver Ryan Williams has 23 catches for 576 yards and an average of 25 yards per catch while accounting for 6 of Alabama’s 12 receiving touchdowns.

Germie Bernard is the Tide’s second most productive receiver with 309 yards on 20 grabs and 2 touchdown catches.

Tennessee is ranked No. 9 in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 42.2 points per game along with 31 touchdowns and 11 field goals.

Big Orange ranks 10th nationally with 20 rushing touchdowns and an average of 5.35 yards per carry while ranking 7th in FBS with 246 rushing yards per game.

Alabama ranks 54th nationally in rush defense, allowing 129 yards per game while giving up an average of 3.33 yards per carry and rushing for just 6 touchdowns on the ground.

The Vols rank 40th in the FBS in third-down offense, moving the chains on 42 of 94 chances for a 44.68 percent conversion rate.

Alabama ranks 22nd in third-down defense, allowing 36 conversions on 96 attempts, a success rate of 31.25 percent.

Tennessee ranks 39th nationally in the red zone, scoring 27 of 30 chances (90%), with 19 of those scores coming for touchdowns (63%).

Alabama has allowed opponents to score 15 times on 18 red zone opportunities (83%), with just over 55% of those points being touchdowns (10).

Nico Iamaleava has been held under 200 yards in each of the Vols’ last four games, but has thrown just one interception in that time.

Iamaleava ranks 81st nationally with a quarterback rating of 51.4 and completed 66 percent of his pass attempts for 1,219 yards with 7 touchdowns and 3 picks.

Dont’e Thornton, Jr. has just 9 catches but leads the team in receiving yards with 295 thanks to a 32.8 yards per reception average and has scored 3 of UT’s 9 receiving touchdowns.

Squirrel White leads Tennessee with 20 receptions but has yet to score, and tight end Miles Kitselman has 2 touchdowns on 6 catches.

Dylan Sampson leads the nation’s No. 7 rushing attack, rushing for 699 yards, averaging 5.9 yards per carry and scoring 15 of the Volunteers’ 20 rushing touchdowns.

DeSean Bishop is averaging 6.9 yards per rush and has three scores on 48 carries.

Most analytical models also predict the Crimson Tide will crush the Volunteers.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Alabama is projected to win the game outright in a majority of 53.9 percent of recent computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Tennessee as the expected winner in the remaining 46.1 percent of sims.

According to the model’s latest projection, Alabama is expected to be just 1.2 points better than Tennessee with the current makeup of both teams on the same field.

More… Alabama vs. Tennessee Prediction: What the Analytics Say

According to data from FanDuel Sportsbook, Alabama is a 3.5-point favorite against Tennessee.

FanDuel set the total score for the game at 56.5 points (over -115, under -105).

And it lists the overall moneyline odds for Alabama at -152 and Tennessee at +126.

A majority of bettors are expecting the Volunteers to overcome the Crimson Tide, as shown by the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Tennessee receives 57 percent of bets on winning the game outright in an upset or keeping the score under the narrow 3.5-point limit.

The other 43 percent of bets assume Alabama will win the game and cover the spread.

There are some legitimate concerns about the stability of Tennessee’s vertical game after Nico Iamaleava’s performance has declined, as he hasn’t thrown a touchdown in the last two games and hasn’t scored multiple touchdowns in a game since Week 2.

This lack of consistency has hindered the Vols’ offensive potential and will be a weak point against a decent Alabama front seven, with Iamaleava averaging less than 5 yards per pass under pressure.

Alabama will look to confuse Iamaleava with different offenses up front, applying pressure with four rushers and placing most of the emphasis on stopping the run.

Meanwhile, Dylan Sampson and a stellar rushing performance from Tennessee have picked up some of the slack, and it’s this phase of the offense that needs to be nailed down to burn up the clock and keep the Tide’s offense off the field.

Tennessee’s strength remains its dominant front-seven rotation, the engine behind the nation’s fourth-ranked defense and the nation’s second-largest unit in terms of total production.

But it hasn’t seen a major offense of Alabama’s caliber, and there will be moments when Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe sneaks out of the pocket to extend a play or get offside.

And the Vols’ secondary is full of young cornerbacks who have shown they can leave throwing lanes open, like they did against Florida, and are now facing superior Crimson Tide receivers.

Rocky Top itself could make the difference and betting on the Vols could be enough to cover even such a tight line.

College football headquarters chooses…

More…Alabama vs. Tennessee Score Prediction by Expert Model

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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