2024 election predictions by Allan Lichtman, Nate Silver, betting odds

Election Day 2024 is almost three weeks away, when Americans will choose between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

Jump to: PREDICTIONS l LATEST SWING STATE POLL l ELECTION CARD

Of the five national polls released on Wednesday, October 16, Harris is ahead in all polls except the Marquette Law School poll, which has Harris and Trump tied. But who do political experts predict will win? And what do bettors say?

Presidential observer Allan Lichtman predicted Harris would win the election, but pollster Nate Silver believes Trump will win. The betting odds begin to swing heavily in favor of one candidate.

Both Lictman and Silver use two different methods to predict their picks for the White House:

Lichtman, a historian and “distinguished professor” of history at American University in Washington, D.C., has correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the 10 recent presidential elections, USA Today noted.

Lichtman developed a prediction system called “13 Keys to the White House” to determine election results. The “keys” consist of 13 categories:

• KEY 1 (party mandate)
• KEY 2 (Competition)
• KEY 3 (Term)
• KEY 4 (Third)
• KEY 5 (Short-Term Economics)
• KEY 6 (Long-Term Economics)
• KEY 7 (Policy Change)
• KEY 8 (Social Unrest)
• KEY 9 (Scandal)
• KEY 10 (Foreign/Military Failure)
• KEY 11 (Foreign/Military Success)
• KEY 12 (Officiating Charisma)
• KEY 13 (Challenger Charisma)

Nate Silver: How did he predict Trump’s victory?

Silver is an American statistician and founder of election analysis site FiveThirtyEight.

Silver’s 2024 election forecast model is similar to his FiveThirtyEight election version, with the methodology mostly the same except for the removal of the COVID-19 provisions introduced in his election model in 2020, his report said Silver Bulletina website with the latest survey data.

Its 2024 election model examines polling averages but takes into account surveys conducted among registered or likely voters. When predicting a winner, the model also uses national polls to make decisions about state polls.

The model also uses data on voters’ religious affiliation and other demographic, geographic and political changes to calculate voting similarity between different states.

Betting odds

Offshore bettors continue to increase the odds of Trump winning the presidential race.

This Thursday, his probability increased to 62% on crypto trading Polymarket. PredictIt shows Trump’s chances at 54 to 47.

According to USA Today, Polymarket warned that betting market margins should not be compared to poll margins.

“While Trump’s lead is the largest since the summer, its significance cannot be overstated. A market lead of 55-45 is nowhere near as strong as a five-point lead in polls,” Oracle wrote in the Polymarket newsletter. “Small movements in the polls are escalated into large fluctuations in the ratings.”

Harris has now maintained his lead nationally, but polls show Trump ahead in six of the seven swing states that will decide the election. All polls are extremely close to each other and within the margin of error.

An average of more than 14 recent national polls calculated by 270toWin shows Harris with a slim lead over Trump (49.6% to 47.1%).

The latest swing state polls that will determine the outcome of the election show a different picture: As of Wednesday, October 16, Trump was ahead in the average of recent polls in all but one of the swing states.

Click here to learn more about these surveys and their methodology.

Arizona

An average of more than eight polls in Arizona, the most recent on Oct. 14, shows Trump with a 1.8% lead.

Georgia

An average of more than six polls in Georgia, the most recent on Oct. 14, shows Trump leading by 0.5%.

Michigan

In Michigan, an average of more than eight polls, the most recent on Oct. 15, show Trump with a 0.5% lead.

Nevada

An average of more than five polls in Nevada, the most recent on Oct. 15, shows Trump with a 0.6% lead.

North Carolina

In North Carolina, an average of more than five polls, the most recent on Oct. 15, show Trump with a 1.2% lead.

Pennsylvania

An average of more than 10 polls in Pennsylvania, the most recent on Oct. 13, shows Trump with a 0.1% lead.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin is the only swing state where Harris was ahead, according to recent polls. An average of more than seven polls, the most recent on Oct. 11, shows Harris with a 0.3% lead.

To win the 2024 presidential election, 270 electoral votes are required. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match by clicking on the party and/or names near the vote counter. Source: 270toWin.

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