LSU vs. Arkansas Prediction: Who Will Win and Why?

Two weeks after upsetting a top-10 team, Arkansas is back at home against No. 8 LSU and looks to do it again on Saturday in Week 8 of college football. Here’s what to look out for in the game with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Arkansas beat then-No. 4 Tennessee two weeks ago, moved to 2-1 in SEC play and has played LSU close in that series, although despite losing 7 of the last 8, the last 4 meetings have been decided by a single possession.

LSU is 2-0 in conference play after posting a decisive overtime win over Ole Miss last week that cemented this team not only in the SEC title game, but also in the College Football Playoff.

What can we expect when the Razorbacks host the Tigers this weekend?

Here’s what to look for when LSU and Arkansas meet in this Week 8 college football game with our updated prediction.

1. Air out. There is some concern about Hogs quarterback Taylen Green recovering from a knee injury suffered in the Tennessee game, especially since he averages 4th among SEC signal-callers with 250 passing yards per game.

If he can’t go, Malachi Singleton gets the nod. He made 2 of 3 against the Vols and ran for a touchdown, but whoever starts should find an angle against an LSU pass defense that ranks 15th among 16 SEC teams this season.

2. Go to the QB. Garrett Nussmier is the beating heart of the LSU offense in every way, as the quarterback ranks 6th in the FBS with 331 yards per game on average and 3rd nationally with 18 touchdown passes.

Arkansas ranks 10th in the SEC in pass defense and could have trouble getting close to Nussmeier as it averages just 5 tackles for loss per game and the quarterback has only been sacked twice this year while working behind an expert line.

But the Razorbacks could get a takeaway or two as the quarterback had at least 1 interception in 4 of his 6 starts and consecutive games with 2 picks.

3. On the ground. Arkansas ranks a respectable 27th in the FBS against the run, allowing just 5 rushing touchdowns and just 106 yards per game, an average of 3.47 yards per carry.

LSU is poor at running the ball, ranking 100th nationally with an average of 123 yards, and could struggle to find lanes against a reasonably coordinated Razorback run stop.

Most analytical models predict the Tigers will beat the Razorbacks and remain perfect.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from each team to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

LSU is expected to win the game in 54.2 percent of computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Arkansas as the expected winner in the remaining 45.8 percent of Sims.

Expect a close game, as the model’s latest projection projects LSU to be just 1.6 points better than Arkansas on the same field.

More… LSU vs. Arkansas Predictions: What the Analytics Say

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, LSU is a 2.5-point favorite against Arkansas.

FanDuel lists the overall score for the game as 56.5 points (over -115, under -105).

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -135 for LSU and +115 for Arkansas.

A slim majority of bettors expect the Tigers to face the Hogs on the road, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

LSU receives 55 percent of the bets to win the game and cover the spread.

The other 45 percent of bets assume Arkansas will either win in an upset or keep the game within close limits.

While LSU’s mediocre secondary draws a lot of negative attention, it’s actually the team’s run defense that could play an outsized role in this game.

The unit is the fourth-worst among SEC teams at stopping opposing backs, and that could be a problematic factor when it comes to the Razorbacks’ rushing capacity, be it lead back Ja’Quinden Jackson or one of the team’s two mobile quarterbacks.

Still, the Hogs’ secondary is also vulnerable and will struggle against an LSU vertical that is among the best in the country and has made up for the team’s other relative weaknesses so far.

College football headquarters chooses…

More…LSU vs. Arkansas result prediction by expert model

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 6:00 p.m. central
TV: ESPN Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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