Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is dead. Here’s who could lead the group next

Tel Aviv
CNN
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Israel on Wednesday successfully completed its year-long mission to kill Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the man accused of being one of the masterminds of the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks.

But while Sinwar’s death is a major blow to Hamas, it does not mean the group’s immediate demise. Hamas has vowed to continue the fight, saying the killing of leaders – including Sinwar – does not mean the end of its movement.

A statement from Hamas’s political office on Friday confirming Sinwar’s death said: “Hamas grew stronger and more popular each time, and these leaders became icons for future generations to continue the path to a free Palestine .”

While rumors swirl about Sinwar’s successor, here’s what we know about Hamas’ future:

It is unclear whether Sinwar himself has left instructions as to who should replace him, but his younger brother Mohammed Sinwar is seen by many as his presumptive heir. Like his brother, Mohammed is a hardliner militant who was recently appointed Hamas military commander.

The fate of Mohammed Sinwar is currently unknown. Israeli media reported on Friday that an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman said they were “actively searching for him.” A senior Israeli official previously told CNN the two brothers had spent much of the past year side by side and were only together in August.

Mousa Abu Marzouk, the deputy head of Hamas’ political bureau who helped found Hamas, could also be a contender to succeed Sinwar. He lived in the United States for five years before the FBI classified him as a terrorist. He was eventually deported.

Khaled Meshaal, the group’s former political chief, is also seen as a strong contender for the role. Meshaal is internationally known and has met in the past with top officials such as former US President Jimmy Carter, Jordan’s King Abdullah II and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

However, he could face difficulties over his past support of a Sunni uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, as Hamas, itself a Shiite group, is backed by Shiite-majority Iran.

Sinwar’s deputy Khalil Al Hayya is seen as another strong contender for the role. He served as Hamas’ chief negotiator in the recent ceasefire talks in Cairo and is based in Qatar.

Both Meshaal and Al Hayya have been among Hamas’ highest officials for many years. And both have been the target of Israeli assassination attempts in the past. In 1997, Israeli Mossad agents posing as Canadian tourists sprayed a toxic substance into Meshaal’s ear. The incident was widely publicized when the Israeli secret service agents were captured in Jordan.

Israel has killed previous leaders of Hamas: in 2004 they killed Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin. A few weeks later, his successor, Abdel Aziz Rantisi, was killed.

While Hamas has always managed to recover from multiple assassinations of its leadership, it is difficult to say how it will regroup now, given how Hamas’s organizational structure has changed under Sinwar’s rule.

Sinwar had consolidated his power during the war and became Hamas’ sole decision-maker in Gaza after the other two top Hamas officials were killed there.

Mohammed al-Masri – popularly known as Mohammed Deif – was the commander of Hamas’s military wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, and was killed in an Israeli airstrike in July. According to the Israeli military, Deif’s deputy, Marwan Issa, was killed in March. Hamas never acknowledged her death.

Sinwar became Hamas’ senior leader after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital Tehran in July. Iran blamed Israel for the killing. The Israeli Defense Forces did not comment on the allegation.