Oregon vs. Purdue Prediction: Who Will Win and Why?

Two new Big Ten rivals face off in college football at the start of Week 8 as No. 2 Oregon takes on Purdue on Friday night. Here’s what to look out for with our updated prediction for the game.

Oregon played below expectations early in the season, winning its first two games by a total of 13 points, but has since improved, culminating in a record-setting win over Ohio State that gives the team an inside track in the Big Ten Championship .

Purdue fell to 0-3 in Big Ten play after a 1-point loss to Illinois last week and will use Ryan Browne at quarterback to rejuvenate its offense as the team tries to curb an ugly five-game losing streak Includes 3 games with more than 50 points.

What can we expect from the matchup?

Here’s what to look for when Oregon and Purdue meet in this Week 8 college football game with our updated prediction for the matchup.

1. Spoiler maker. Purdue has had a habit of upsetting ranked teams of late and has won seven games against ranked opponents in the last six years, including three wins against teams in the top three places and a total of nine wins against teams in the top two places, so most of a school in the election era. Ranked teams are in danger when they face Purdue.

2. Make the barrel. While the Boilermakers will struggle when Oregon puts the ball in the air, their real weakness is on the ground. They rank 127th in the FBS in run defense, allowing an average of 229 yards per game, over 5.3 yards per carry from opposing defenders and 19 touchdowns.

3. On the line. Oregon has significantly improved its blocking coordination since a sloppy start on offense early in the season, but the Boilermakers can generate a decent pass rush around the edges from time to time, as the duo of Will Heldt and Kydran Jenkins have combined for 14 sacks and can attacking the Ducks’ outside blockers.

Most analytical models predictably side with the Ducks over the Boilermakers in this matchup.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Oregon has the edge in most 95.1 percent of the game’s computer simulations.

That leaves Purdue as the expected winner in the remaining 4.9 percent of Sims.

And the index predicts a big margin of victory, as the model’s latest projection says Oregon is projected to be 26.3 points better than Purdue on the same field.

More… Oregon vs. Purdue Prediction: What the Analytics Say

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Oregon is the 28-point favorite against Purdue.

FanDuel gives the total score for the game at 60.5 points (over -110, under -110).

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -4000 for Oregon and +1800 for Purdue.

According to the latest spread consensus picks for the game, a slim majority of bettors are on the Ducks’ side to easily defeat the Boilermakers.

Oregon receives 52 percent support from bettors to win the game and cover the generous point spread.

The other 48 percent of bets assume Purdue will either win the game in an upset or, more likely, keep the score under 4 touchdowns.

The talent disparity between these teams prevents us from calling this a pure trap game, but having to go a long way against a seemingly overmatched opponent after winning the game of your life in a short week are credible warning signs, especially given recent ones History of Purdue as a disgruntled agent.

The change at quarterback has breathed some life into the Boilermakers’ offense, albeit in a limited sample, but it’s hard to imagine the Ducks’ back seven being beaten by these threats all that often.

Oregon has the playmakers to flatten the Boilers at will, but other considerations could make this a lower-scoring game.

The dismal state of Purdue’s run defense will be too inviting for Oregon’s balanced offense not to exploit, and after building a 2 or 3 touchdown lead, we could see Dan Lanning shift the offense into neutral and slowed the game down to make it a win.

College football headquarters chooses…

More… Oregon vs. Purdue score prediction by expert model

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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