Wisconsin vs. Northwestern Prediction: Odds, Expert Picks, QB Matchup, Betting Trends and Stats

Wisconsin was defeated 41-10 by Alabama in Week 2 before a second-half implosion against USC led them to open a 21-10 halftime lead. However, they have since regrouped and earned two straight dominant wins over Purdue and a solid @Rutgers defense by a combined score of 94-13. Co-starter RB Chez Mellusi left the team, leaving RB1 Tawee Walker to shoulder a 24-carry load for a whopping 198 rushing yards and three touchdowns last week against the Scarlet Knights. QB Braedyn Locke has completed 68% of his throws in his last two games, fueling the Badgers’ offensive revitalization as Tyler Van Dyke’s replacement.

Northwestern entered last week’s game against @Maryland with its back against the wall after losing its first three games to Power Four opponents Duke, @Washington and undefeated Indiana. The Wildcats capitalized on three fumble recoveries and an interception to beat the Terrapins 37-10 despite gaining just 10 first downs and going 3-for-12 on third downs. Their offense ranks 104th in SP+ and has struggled to put together a consistent offense. Northwestern’s bright spot is a strong run defense that currently posts the 20th best EPA/rush and ninth best yards per rush in FBS.

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Game details and how to watch Wisconsin @ Northwestern 2024

• Date: Saturday, October 19, 2024
• Time: 12:00 PM EST
• website: Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium
• City: Evanston, IL
• TV/Streaming: BTN

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Wisconsin @ Northwestern odds

The latest odds from Thursday evening:

• Money line: Wisconsin (-300), Northwest (+240)
• Spread: Wisconsin 7.5
• Over/Under: 41.5 points
  *Odds courtesy of BetMGM

The line opened at -7 and has since crawled above the key number to 7.5 and even to 8 in some places. Wisconsin’s -238 moneyline open has risen to -300 to -340, with Northwestern following suit from +195 to +270. The total value has hardly changed since the opening and is currently 41.5 points.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC sports betting analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) believes points could be difficult to come by:
“Wisconsin has exceeded 41.5 points in every game against FBS opponents this year, with the Badgers scoring 94 points in the last two games. Northwestern has also scored more points since adding QB1 Jack Lausch, scoring 41.5 points in three of the last four games. I support the over 41.5 points.”

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BetMGM College Football Insights: Heisman Trophy

Highest ticket percentage
Travis Hunter 16.5%
· Nico Iamaleava 9.6%
· Jalen Milroe 8.4%

Highest grip %
Travis Hunter 31.9%
Ashton Jeanty 11.1%
Cam Ward 7.8%

Greatest liability
· Travis Hunter
· Ashton Jeanty
· Nico Iamaleava

Quarterback matchup for Wisconsin @ Northwestern

• Wisconsin: HC Luke Fickell joined QB Tyler Van Dyke in Miami to lead the QB room, but unfortunately TVD was injured early in the Week 3 contest against Alabama and Braedyn Locke took over from there. Locke has completed 59.5% of his passes for 904 yards and a 6-for-4 ratio in three starts and has posted an offensive grade of 69.2 PFF so far. Locke ranks 62nd out of 71 FBS P4 signal callers with a 24% 3rd down conversion rate that needs improvement. Still, his 20 of 28 for 240 yards and a 1-for-1 ratio in a convincing win over Rutgers last week was the best performance of his young career.

• Northwest: The Wildcats tried starting dual-threat transfer QB Mike Wright from Mississippi State until he completed 57.6% of his passes in the first two games with a 0-to-1 ratio and a PFF passing grade of 63, 1 completed. QB Jack Lausch took over the QB1 mantle and took some hits in his first FBS start against Washington. He completed a miserable 30% of his throws with two interceptions against the Huskies before settling for 243 passing yards and two touchdown passes against Indiana. Last weekend, everything came together for Lausch as he defeated Maryland 37-10. His 11.3 yards per attempt was a career high.

Trends and current statistics for Wisconsin and Northwestern

• Wisconsin is 2-4 ATS, but 4-2 to the over. Reducing their 10 turnovers (95th) would go a long way toward eliminating the ATS deficit.
• Wisconsin Skill players fumbled five times, the most among Big Ten teams. None of Wisconsin’s 13 receptions in close and late situations resulted in touchdowns.
• Northwestern’s offense has thrown for 1,080 yards, which is the 22nd-fewest among FBS programs. Wisconsin has allowed 168 yards per game so far, which ranks 17th among FBS defenses.
• The Wildcats field the 22nd SP+ defense and have been very successful in suppressing big plays. They rank 14th in explosiveness and 21st in plays with more than 20 players. They’ve done a great job on their own, ranking 12th in points per game allowed at 3.2 while also committing 10 turnovers (26th in FBS).

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