Three keys to victory and a prediction

The Nevada football team hosts Fresno State on Saturday. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game against the Bulldogs with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in collaboration with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.

Fresno State (3-3, 1-1 MW) at Nevada (3-4, 0-1)

When: Friday, 7:30 p.m

Where: Mackay Stadium (capacity 27,000)

Surface: FieldTurf

Weather: maximum value of 55; Low of 29

TV/Radio: CBS Sports Network/105.7 FM (also on Varsity Network)

On-line: None

Betting line: Fresno State by 3; total 50.5

All-time series: Fresno State leads 32-22-1

Last matchup: Fresno State won 27-9 on September 30, 2023 (at Fresno)

Three keys to the game

1. 5.0 yards per carry: Nevada is averaging 5.5 yards per carry, its highest since 2010. Fresno State is allowing 4.5 yards per carry. The Wolfpack would split the difference, gaining 5.0 yards per carry against a Bulldogs defense that is better against the pass (18th in FBS in pass efficiency defense) than against the run (67th in FBS in rushing yards allowed per game). Like the rest of the team, Fresno State’s run defense was inconsistent. The Bulldogs held Michigan to 148 run yards and 4.4 yards per carry, but were outpaced by New Mexico (147 yards, 5.3 yards per carry) and UNLV (252 yards, 6.5 yards per carry). Nevada has built one of the best rushing attacks in the country and is coming off a 353-yard ground game against Fresno State. Add to that the expected cold weather for Friday night’s kickoff, and the Wolf Pack will lean heavily on a rushing attack that has become its offensive identity.

2. Better Third-Down D: The Wolfpack had a great third-down offense and ranked third in conversion rate on those downs. It’s more terrible to defend third place and finish second nationally with a conversion rate of 52.2. Last week against Oregon State, the Wolf Pack allowed the Beavers to convert 12 of 16 third downs, paving the way for Oregon State to score 37 points. Nevada’s defense has trended in the wrong direction in recent weeks, facing a potentially potent Fresno State offense whose personnel is better than their production at this point. Nevada needs to do a better job getting off the field on third down. The good news is that Fresno State hasn’t been good on third downs, converting just 36.4 percent of those plays (98th nationally). The Bulldogs’ offense is clearly missing head coach Jeff Tedford, who resigned shortly before the start of the season for health reasons.

3. Get Extra Possessions: Nevada beat Oregon State because it had a plus-four turnover margin for the first time in 31 games. A lead like that can’t be relied upon, but it would be crucial for Nevada to steal a few extra possessions. Fresno State has 12 turnovers this season, with quarterback Mikey Keene throwing eight interceptions, the most in the league. Nevada has done a good job protecting the ball, sitting at plus-four in turnover margin in wins and minus-three in turnover margin in losses. Additionally, it will be interesting to see if Nevada attempts to recover the ball with a fake field goal, a fake punt or a trick onside kick after attempting a fake field goal last week, a game in which Wolf Pack head coach Jeff Choate played a more aggressive style after being a little too conservative against San Jose State. In what is expected to be a close game, an extra possession or two could go a long way for Nevada or Fresno State.

forecast

Nevada 30, Fresno State 27: The Wolfpack are field goal underdogs for the second game in a row. In this situation, they won against Oregon State last week, with Fresno State having a much better defense than the Beavers. This will be a good test for the Wolf Pack’s rising offense, as the Bulldogs have the third-best defense Nevada will face this season behind SMU and Minnesota, teams that held the Wolf Pack to a combined 12 points per game. With Nevada hosting Fresno State in a short week of cool temperatures, I’ll be siding with the Wolf Pack in just under a week. Season balance: 6-1 (straight up); 5-2 (against the spread)

Columnist Chris Murray provides insight into sports in Northern Nevada. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.