Michigan vs. Illinois Prediction: Odds, Expert Picks, QB Matchup, Betting Trends and Stats

Michigan is 4-2 after a difficult early season that included a forgivable 31-12 loss to No. 1 Texas and a resounding 27-17 loss to Washington before its Week 7 bye. Even their last two wins against Minnesota and USC were 27-24 close calls as quarterback instability and roster turnover took their toll. The Wolverines rank 133rd in yards per successful play and 106th in EPA/play, but their power run game concedes red zone touchdowns at a clip of 82%, which is 6th in FBS . So if QB Jack Tuttle is reinstated, he can have a semi-respectable passing attack. Michgan’s offense could potentially still come together.

The Illini defeated Kansas and @Nebraska 5-1 in 1-point games before being defeated by @Penn State 21-7. Last week they escaped with a 50-49 win over a limping Purdue team in which Illinois posted a 23% win percentage and gave up 534 total yards. The offensive line was a mess, ranking 127th in sacks per dropback with an abysmal 11.4% blown block rate, which ranks 125th in the FBS. While Illinois’ secondary performs strongly, ranking 21st in interception rate (4.0%) and 25th in yards per successful dropback, their #43 SP+ defense has an abysmal rushing success rate of 51%. (126th) and a stuff rate of 11.5% (132nd).

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Game details and how to watch Michigan @ Illinois

• Date: Saturday, October 19, 2024
• Time: 3:30pm EST
• Website: Memorial Stadium
• City: Champaign, IL
• TV/Streaming: CBS/Paramount+

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Michigan @ Illinois odds

The latest odds from Thursday evening:

• Money line: Michigan (-160), Illinois (+135)
• Spread: Michigan -3.5
• Over/Under: 44.5 points

*Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Michigan entered the game as a -2 favorite, has since surpassed the key -3 line and sits at an industry-wide 3.5 as of press time. With CFB it is rare that such a small variance occurs on a line after such a move. Michigan’s money line ranges from -165 to -175, while Illinois trades between +145 and +128. The total value has risen from an opening value of 42 to a current high of 45.5.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC sports betting analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) believes points could be difficult to come by:
“Illinois has lived a charmed life, coming away with one-score wins over Kansas, @Nebraska and Purdue. “Michigan has a running game strong enough to take advantage of Illinois’ soft run defense and cover the -3.5 point spread on the road.”

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BetMGM College Football Insights: Heisman Trophy

Line movement (open, current)
· Ashton Jeanty +5000, +150
· Travis Hunter +3500, +800
· Cam Ward +20000, +900
· Jalen Milroe +800, +1000
· Quinn Ewers +800, +2200

Highest ticket percentage
Travis Hunter 16.5%
· Nico Iamaleava 9.6%
· Jalen Milroe 8.4%

Greatest liability
· Travis Hunter
· Ashton Jeanty
· Nico Iamaleava

Quarterback matchup for Michigan @ Illinois

• Michigan: QB Davis Warren started the first three games before giving way to Alex Orji in Week 3 as Michigan earned a 28-18 win over Arkansas State. Orji started the next three games before HC Sherrone gave Indiana transfer quarterback Jack Tuttle a whirl in the 27-17 loss to Washington in Week 6, where the Wolverines gained just 287 yards. With Orji completing 53.5% of his passes for a dour 3.4 yards per attempt, the defense quickly realized UM had no chance to throw downfield and stifled the Wolverines’ one-dimensional offense. Tuttle has a 59.4% completion rate with a 7-7 ratio in his six collegiate campaigns.

• Illinois: QB Luke Altmyer has been the engine of a strong passing offense that ranks 25th in pass success rate and 30th in total QBR. That’s important because Illinois’ running game was clearly disappointing, ranking 96th in rushing success rate and 81st in EPA/Rush. Altmyer was a calming presence, completing 68% of his throws with a sparkling 14:1 ratio and an 81 percent PFF offensive rating. And he does so while dealing with a 33% pressure rate (87th) from an offensive line that commits 4.7 penalties per game (106th).

Trends and current statistics for Michigan and Illinois

• Michigan has thrown for more than 20 yards on just 5.3% of pass attempts this year, third-worst among FBS offenses. Illinois’ D has allowed passes of more than 20 yards on 9.7% of attempts, fifth-best among Big Ten defenses and ranks 31st nationally in allowing 126.5 receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts allows.
• Even though Jim Harbaugh is gone, Michigan still runs one of the slowest offenses in the country, ranking 132nd in the FBS at 32 seconds per game. They are at 69.2% in set-piece throws, 11th in the country, and 40% of the time in passing situations.
• The Illinois defense has a lot of trouble defending the run. She ranks 126th in rush success rate, 133rd in opportunity rate, and 132nd with a stuff rate of 11.5%. The defensive line struggled to replace NFL Draft DT Jer’Zhan Newton, ranking second-worst in the country with a defensive line devastation rate of 1.3% (Nat Avg = 5.2%).
• Illini OLB Gabe Jacas leads the team with 7.0 havoc plays, 5.0 TFL and 3.0 sacks. Slot CB Xavier Scott leads the team with three interceptions and has allowed just 116 yards in coverage on 20 targets.

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