Here's who's ahead in the key battlegrounds of the 2024 election

Topline

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris could split the Sun Belt’s crucial swing states. That’s according to three new polls that show Harris ahead in North Carolina and Trump in Georgia and Arizona – as the race remains incredibly close with less than three weeks to go until Election Day.

Former President Donald Trump delivers a speech during a campaign rally at Cobb Energy Performing … [+] Arts Center on October 15, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

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Important facts

Pennsylvania: Harris has a 50-47% lead (more like four points if not rounded up) in two New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls as of Saturday, and also has the same lead in an Oct. 9 Quinnipiac poll, However, Friday’s Wall Street Journal poll gives Trump a one-point lead, 46% to 45%, and Thursday’s Emerson poll showed him also a point ahead, 49% to 48%. The FiveThirtyEight poll average shows Trump leading Harris by 0.4 points.

Michigan: Harris leads Trump 47% to 45% in the Wall Street Journal poll, a change from the Emerson poll showing Trump tied with Harris, and from Trump’s three-point lead (50% to 47% ) in an Oct. 9 Quinnipiac poll Harris still leads in Michigan by 0.6 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Wisconsin: Harris has a one-point lead in Friday’s Journal poll, while Trump leads Harris 48% to 46% in the Oct. 9 Quinnipiac poll and both are at 49% in the Emerson poll. Harris is up 0.3 points on the FiveThirtyEight average.

Nevada: According to the Journal poll, Trump is up 5 points. Harris is up one point in the Emerson poll, 48% to 47%. Harris leads the FiveThirtyEight polling average by 0.7 points.

Big number

1.5. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump in the Real Clear Politics national polling average, while the FiveThirtyEight average shows her leading by 2.4 points.

Important background

Harris became the nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 due to an intraparty revolt following his debate performance – dramatically changing the fortunes of Democrats. Before the postponement, polls consistently showed Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, although Biden won six of the seven states (excluding North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Here’s who’s ahead in the key battlegrounds of the 2024 election

Topline

Important facts

Big number

Important background

Further reading

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By Hudson Brooklyn

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Here’s who’s ahead in the key battlegrounds of the 2024 election

Topline

Important facts

Big number

Important background

Further reading

Related posts:

By Hudson Brooklyn

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