Georgia Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhorns Prediction: Odds, Expert Picks, QB Matchup, Betting Trends and Stats

Texas played ruthlessly in the first half of the schedule, posting an incredible scoring margin of +37 points per game. Oklahoma was no match for the Longhorns and was easily defeated in a 34-3 loss. The running game was efficient (4th in success rate) but lacks big-play ability and ranks 94th in yards per successful rush. Defensively, the Longhorns’ secondary was elite, ranking 1st in EPA per dropback and second in pass success rate. Their run defense was slightly above average but not exceptional, ranking 68th in rushing success rate and 94th in opportunity rate.

Georgia bounced back from a 41-34 loss to Alabama, where the Bulldogs had arguably their worst first-half performance in four years, beating Auburn and Mississippi State fairly handily, although MSU managed to score 31 points in overtime . Georgia needs to tighten up a leaky secondary that ranks 72nd in yards per dropback and 92nd in allowing explosiveness, or Texas’ potent passing attack could score points from the top all day. Of course, UGA QB Carson Beck is no slouch either, as the Dawgs rank 18th in EPA/dropback and 17th in passing success rate.

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Game details and how to watch Georgia @ Texas 2024

• Date: Saturday, October 19, 2024
• Time: 7:30pm EST
• Website: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
• City: Austin, Texas
• TV/Streaming: ABC/ESPN+

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Georgia @ Texas odds

The latest odds from Thursday afternoon:

• Money line: Texas (-200), Oklahoma (+165)
• Spread: Texas -4.5
• Over/Under: 55.5 points

*Odds courtesy of BetMGM

We have seen a significant movement of the line from the Texas open at -1.5 to the current range of -4.5 to -5.5. Following this trend, the Texas money line has risen -135 to a current high of -220 and a low of -198. The overall score is more stable, but still saw an increase from 55 points to the high of 56.5 points, where it is now.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC sports betting analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) believes points could be difficult to come by:
“Texas’ defense has been virtually impenetrable so far, but Georgia is clearly the best offense they’ve ever faced. It’s hard to bet against UT at home at this point because they look like the most complete team in the country, but the time for Texas under -3 or -135 is over and now you’re at -200+. That said, I’m still leaning toward Texas -5 against a somewhat vulnerable UGA defense.”

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BetMGM College Football Insights: Heisman Trophy

Line movement (open, current)
· Ashton Jeanty +5000, +150
· Travis Hunter +3500, +800
· Cam Ward +20000, +900
· Jalen Milroe +800, +1000
· Quinn Ewers +800, +2200

Highest ticket percentage
Travis Hunter 16.5%
· Nico Iamaleava 9.6%
· Jalen Milroe 8.4%

Highest grip %
Travis Hunter 31.9%
Ashton Jeanty 11.1%
Cam Ward 7.8%

Greatest liability
· Travis Hunter
· Ashton Jeanty
· Nico Iamaleava

Quarterback matchup for Georgia @ Texas

• Texas: Quinn Ewers held off the Manning Dynasty and won the starting gig out of camp, but after posting two dominant wins against Colorado State and Michigan, he suffered an injury in Week 3 against UTSA, giving way to Arch for a brief tryout. run. Manning threw four touchdowns in relief, started the next two games and amassed 900 passing yards, a 9-to-2 ratio and a sparkling offensive grade of 90.4 PFF. Ewers returned last week and completed 20 of 29 passes for 199 yards and a 1-1 ratio as UT cruised to an easy 34-3 win. Even though he wasn’t on the scoreboard, Ewers looked the part and appears ready for this weekend.
• Georgia: While QB Carson Beck has been very good so far, he completed 67.6% of his passes for 8.7 YPA and a 15-to-5 ratio in six games. However, his offensive grade of 84.2 PFF is a significant drop from Beck’s overall grade of 91 .5 in 2023. To make matters worse, he threw three interceptions against Alabama three games ago and two more interceptions against Mississippi State last week. With an interception rate of 4.2%, Texas ranks 13th in the nation, so Beck can’t afford to be so sloppy with his throws or Georgia will have trouble keeping up with Texas’ potent offense.

Trends and current stats for Georgia @ Texas

• Georgia WR Arian Smith ranks 3rd among wideouts in the Power Four conference with 17.4% of his balls going 40 yards or more. Alabama freshman sensation Ryan Williams leads the P4 with an eye-catching explosive play rate of 30.4%. Conversely, UGA WR Dominic Lovett has reached more than 20 yards on just 3 of 27 throws (11%), which is the third-fewest among SEC wide receivers.
• Georgia is averaging 2.5 passing touchdowns per game this year, ranking 15th in the FBS. Texas has only allowed one passing touchdown all season, ranking number one in the country. (#2 Memphis with 2 TDs allowed)
• While opening RB1 Jaydon Blue has been targeted 24 times this season, the most among SEC RBs, he fumbled twice against Mississippi State and was the RB2 for Tre Wisner against OKL last week. Wisner responded with 13 carries for 118 yards and a touchdown, while Blue managed just 30 yards on 10 totes.
• Texas WR Isaiah Bond injured his ankle last week against Oklahoma but has completed practice time this week and is considered questionable to play. True freshman phenom WR Ryan Wingo accounted for 74 of Texas’ 406 total yards last week and would see an uptick in usage if Bond were out.

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