Georgia vs. Texas score prediction by an experienced football model

What is expected to be the game of the 2024 college football season begins on the Forty Acres as No. 1 Texas takes on No. 5 Georgia in this important SEC matchup. Let’s check the latest predictions for the game using an expert model that picks winners and projects results.

Texas remains one of college football’s 11 undefeated teams after a dominant 31-point win over Oklahoma and is 2-0 in SEC play behind the nation’s seventh-ranked offense.

Georgia is 3-1 in SEC play, hoping to avoid a costly second conference loss after dropping a decision at Alabama a few weeks ago, and ranks 9th in the FBS in passing performance behind the play of quarterback Carson Beck.

What are the analytics predicting for this SEC top-five matchup?

To that end, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Georgia and Texas will fare in this game-changing Week 8 college football game.

So far, the Models are favoring the Longhorns in this game against the Bulldogs.

SP+ predicts Texas will defeat Georgia by a projected score of 32 to 25 and win the game by an expected margin of 7 points.

The model gives the Longhorns a strong 67 percent chance of winning the game overall.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 180-167-3 against the spread with a win rate of 51.9, after being 26-26 (50%) last weekend.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Texas is the 5-point favorite against Georgia.

FanDuel lists the total score for the game at 56.5 points.

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -210 for Texas and +175 for Georgia.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

A slim majority of bettors are expecting the Longhorns to defeat the Bulldogs, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Texas receives 53 percent of the bets to win the game and cover the spread.

The other 47 percent of bets assume Georgia will either win the game in an upset or keep the score under the line.

Other analytical models also favor the Longhorns over the Bulldogs in this case.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Texas is projected to win the game outright in a majority of 76.2 percent of recent computer simulations of the matchup.

This leaves Georgia as the expected winner of the remaining 23.8 percent of Sims.

According to the model’s latest projection, Texas is expected to be 10.7 points better than Georgia with the current makeup of both teams on the same field.

Texas ranks first among SEC teams with a 95.5 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.8 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model gives Georgia an overall win projection of 9.1 games and ranks second in the SEC with a 68.8 percent chance of making the playoffs.

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 6:30 p.m. CT
TV: ABC Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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