3 Keys, Score Prediction for Iowa State Football vs. UCF (Oct. 19, 2024)

The struggling Knights have enough top talent to challenge the No. 9 Cyclones as 13.5-point underdogs

AMES — Iowa State (6-0, 3-0) has become almost prohibitive favorites to win the Big 12 football title, meaning the pressure is mounting every week as every opponent tries to derail it .

So far, ISU has been able to overcome somewhat slow starts in most of its games, and five of its six wins have come by double digits.

UCF (3-3, 1-2) should rely heavily on its strong running game in hopes of eating up time and shortening the game. But the Cyclones have proven they can thwart that strategy by forcing turnovers at critical moments and responding with shots on goal of both the quick and grinding variety.

ISU firmly believes it can win its first major conference championship in school history and has backed up that belief by excelling at head coach Matt Campbell’s fabled “Margins.”

A win Saturday at 6:30 p.m. (FS1) will match the best start in program history (7-0 in 1938).

Here are three keys to the Cyclones’ victory.

1. Don’t give, take everything

What do some of the most surprising teams in college football this season have in common? Most of them are characterized by ball security.

For example: The 6-0 Cyclones and 6-0 Indiana have each committed just four turnovers this season, which ranks 11th nationally. Undefeated Army turned the ball over once and Alabama champion Vanderbilt only committed two turnovers.

But ISU differs from most of these teams in that it gathers a lot of insight. The Cyclones overwhelmed their opponents 13 times – with 10 interceptions. With a plus-9 turnover margin this season, they are tied for fourth among FBS teams. UCF ranks 95th in this statistical category at minus-3.

If these trends continue, it could be a long night for the sinking Knights.

2. Cut the line

UCF ranks among the top four nationally in rushing offense (fourth, 268 yards per game) and rushing defense (twelfth, 91.2 yards allowed per game). So control of the line of scrimmage was a strength of the team – with a few caveats.

The Knights rank 123rd in quarterback sacks with five and 115th in sacks allowed (3.0 per game). Those are alarmingly low and high numbers, respectively, that the Cyclones should take advantage of on both sides of the ball.

ISU ranks 10th nationally in fewest sacks allowed (0.83 per game), but hasn’t caused much excitement in the backfield defensively, ranking 106th nationally with just 1.5 sacks per game overall . But the Cyclones’ quarterback failures come at critical times – and we expect that trend to remain prevalent against UCF and its (likely) new starting quarterback, Jacurri Brown.

3. Go deep in more ways than one

Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, ISU’s experienced senior wideouts, are on pace to post two 1,000-yard receiving seasons, something no such tandem has ever accomplished in school history.

Higgins is among the top 10 receivers nationally in catches of 10 yards or more, and Noel ranks second with six catches of 40 yards. Both are elite route runners and neither has dropped a pass this season, so quarterback Rocco Becht can count on them in any situation.

However, a consistent No. 3 option needs to emerge, and big-play tight end Ben Brahmer will most likely fill that need. Talented transfer Eli Green could emerge as the Cyclones’ third most productive receiver and caught two key passes in last week’s win at West Virginia. Walk-on Carson Brown has also made some big catches this season as ISU looks to diversify its passing game to take some of the pressure off Higgins and Noel.

Iowa State vs. UCF prediction

The struggling Knights have enough top talent to challenge the No. 9 Cyclones as 13.5-point underdogs, but not enough to avoid a fourth straight loss.

Iowa State 27, UCF 17

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