Army vs. East Carolina score prediction from an expert football model

After four years back in the rankings, No. 23 Army returns home in an AAC league matchup against East Carolina on Saturday in Week 8 of college football. Let’s check the latest predictions for the game using an expert model that picks winners and projects results.

Once again, the Black Knights rely on a superior rushing attack, a unit that is No. 1 in the country with 370 rushing yards per game, while Bryson Daily is first among FBS quarterbacks with 738 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns.

East Carolina has lost 3 of its last 4 games after a 2-0 start and is 5-13 since the start of last season. It ranks 82nd in the FBS in scoring at 26.5 points per game and ranks 97th nationally in rushing production.

What does the analytics suggest for this AAC matchup?

To do that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Army and East Carolina will fare in this Week 8 college football game.

As expected, the Models favor the Black Knights over the Pirates in this matchup.

SP+ projects Army to defeat East Carolina by a projected score of 34 to 17 and win the game by a projected margin of 17 points.

The model gives the Black Knights a strong 85 percent chance of winning the game.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 180-167-3 against the spread with a win rate of 51.9, after being 26-26 (50%) last weekend.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Army is a 16-point favorite against East Carolina.

FanDuel lists the total score for the game at 51.5 points.

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -700 for Army and +500 for East Carolina.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

The majority of bettors are expecting the Black Knights to dominate the Pirates, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

More than 8 out of 10 bets – 81 percent – ​​predict Army will win the game handily and cover the spread.

The other 19 percent of bets assume East Carolina will either win in an upset or keep the game within the generous line.

Other analytical models suggest the Black Knights will easily defeat the Pirates this weekend.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Army is projected to win the game outright in the overwhelming 87 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves East Carolina as the expected winner in the remaining 13 percent of Sims.

According to the model’s latest projection, Army is expected to outperform East Carolina by 17.2 points on the same field, which is also enough to cover the spread.

Army ranks first among AAC teams with a 25.3 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 10.5 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model gives East Carolina an overall win projection of 5.6 games and a 53.3 percent chance of winning a bowl game this season.

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 12pm Eastern
TV: ESPN2 Network

–

The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

–

More college football from SI: Top 25 rankings | schedule | teams

Follow College Football Headquarters: bookmark | Rankings | Selection