BYU vs. Oklahoma State score prediction from an expert football model

A remarkable Big 12 matchup begins in Provo between a team on the rise in the conference race and another on the decline as No. 13 BYU hosts No. 13 Oklahoma State on Friday night in Week 8 of college football receives. Let’s look at the latest prediction for the game, which comes from an expert model that determines the winners.

BYU is perfect in 6 games and is 3-0 in Big 12 play, thanks to the play of mobile quarterback Jake Retzlaff and a stout defense that has held all but one opponent under 20 points this season.

Oklahoma State, originally one of the preseason favorites for the Big 12 title, is surprisingly 0-3 in conference play, averaging 17 points in those games and is ranked just 125th under despite the star’s return 134 FBS teams in rushing production by tailback Ollie Gordon.

What does the analysis suggest for this Big 12 conference matchup?

To that end, let’s take a look at the SP+ prediction model to preview how BYU and Oklahoma State will fare in this Week 8 college football game.

So far, the models in this film have preferred the Cougars to the Cowboys.

SP+ projects BYU to defeat Oklahoma State by a projected score of 32-23 and win the game by an expected margin of 8.7 points.

The model gives the Cougars a strong 71 percent chance of winning overall.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 180-167-3 against the spread with a win rate of 51.9, after being 26-26 (50%) last weekend.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, BYU is the 9.5-point favorite against Oklahoma State.

FanDuel set the total score for the game at 52.5 points.

And the moneyline odds to win outright are -315 for BYU and +250 for Oklahoma State.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

A multitude of bettors are expecting the Cougars to defeat the Cowboys, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

BYU is receiving 65 percent of the bets to win the game and cover the spread to remain undefeated.

Oklahoma State has the other 35 percent of bets on either winning the game in an upset or keeping the score within the line.

Other analytical models also favor the Cougars eliminating the Cowboys.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

BYU is projected to win the game outright in most 63.1 percent of recent computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Oklahoma State as the expected winner in the remaining 36.9 percent of sims.

According to the model’s latest projection, BYU is projected to perform 4.8 points better than Oklahoma State on the same field, which is also not enough to cover that spread.

BYU ranks second among Big 12 teams with a 32.9 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.8 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model gives Oklahoma State an overall win projection of 5.9 games and a 60.6 percent chance of reaching the postseason.

When: Fri, Oct 18
Time: 9:15 p.m. CT | 8:15 p.m. MT
TV: ESPN Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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