Oregon Ducks vs. Purdue Boilermakers Prediction: Odds, Expert Picks, QB Matchup, Betting Trends and Stats

Oregon has ironed out early season weaknesses against Idaho and Boise State by picking up four resume-boosting wins over @Oregon State, @UCLA, Michigan State and of course its unforgettable 32-31 win over Ohio State this past weekend . While Oregon ranks 97th nationally in passing plays over 20 yards, QB Dillon Gabriel hit Texas A&M transfer Evan Stewart for a 69-yarder and four more passes over 30 yards to extend OSU’s secondary. The win moved Oregon to No. 3 overall and into the driver’s seat of a very competitive Big Ten championship hunt.

Although Purdue was winless against FBS competition (0-5), it had a 0% win expectancy against its first three Power Four opponents (Notre Dame/Nebraska/Wisconsin) and was outscored 146-23 in those contests . With starting QB Hudson unavailable last week due to an injury against Illinois, freshman QB Ryan Browne breathed some life into the offense by completing 69% of his passes for 297 yards and a 3-0 118 Rushing yards completed. Despite scoring 49 points and a 77% win expectancy, the Boilermakers once again eluded them, losing 50-49 to the Illini. Purdue’s offense needed help as it ranks 120th in yards per drive and 133rd in offensive plays per game at 54.

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Game details and how to watch Oregon @ Purdue live

• Date: Friday, October 18, 2024
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Website: Ross Ade Stadium
• City: West Lafayette, IN
• TV/Streaming: FOX

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Oregon @ Purdue odds

The latest odds from Wednesday:

• Money line: Oregon (-10000), Purdue (+1650)
• Spread: Oregon -27.5
• Over/Under: 60.5 points
  *Odds courtesy of BetMGM

This game started with an aggressive Oregon score of -29.5 before the key score of -28 dropped to -27.5. The moneyline opened at -4,500, and while most of the market is still in the -4,000 to -5,000 range, Draft Kings is at -3,600. The game total has increased from 58.5 to the current market high of 60.5.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) believes we could see a lot of points this Friday night:
“Oregon will be able to move the ball at will against this porous Purdue defense. With the Boilermakers transitioning to a new OC and redshirt freshman QB, they will be motivated to continue performing and scoring points even if they are eliminated. I support the over 60.5 points.”

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast As hosts, Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp, actionable insights, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their bets.

From the Trading Desk at BetMGM courtesy of John Ewing: Heisman Insights

Line movement (open, current)
· Ashton Jeanty +5000, +150
· Travis Hunter +3500, +800
· Cam Ward +20000, +900
· Jalen Milroe +800, +1000
· Quinn Ewers +800, +2200

Highest ticket percentage
Travis Hunter 16.5%
· Nico Iamaleava 9.6%
· Jalen Milroe 8.4%

Highest grip %
Travis Hunter 31.9%
Ashton Jeanty 11.1%
Cam Ward 7.8%

Greatest liability
· Travis Hunter
· Ashton Jeanty
· Nico Iamaleava

Quarterback matchup for Oregon @ Purdue

• Oregon: Oklahoma’s loss was Oregon’s gain, as QB Dillon Gabriel has picked up right where 2024 R1 NFL Draft pick Bo Nix left off, leading the nation in completion percentage while the Ducks rank 10th in overall QBR rankings. Gabriel’s 88th percentile PFF passing grade ranks 6th in the FBS and he threw for 341 yards in Oregon’s 32-31 win over Ohio State last weekend. The sixth-year signal caller has scored 3+ rushing/passing touchdowns in each of his five starts against FBS opponents and has scored/thrown 168 touchdowns over his illustrious career.

• Purdue: Opening day QB Hudson Card failed to get the offense going against the first four FBS opponents and suffered a concussion two weeks ago that forced redshirt freshman QB Ryan Browne into the starting role against Illinois. Browne provided a much-needed spark, leading the Boilermakers to 536 total yards and 49 points, both of which are the team’s season highs by a significant margin. His dual-threat skills produced 297 passing yards, with another 117 coming on the ground against Illinois’ 43rd-ranked defense. He has since been named the team’s QB1 going forward, with Card’s status for the game appearing in doubt and unlikely to matter even if he is healthy at this rate.

Betting trends and current statistics

• In its last game against OSU, Oregon was without star DE Jordan Burch, who leads the Ducks with 15 pressures and 5.0 sacks. Matayo Uiagalelei ranks second with 4.5 sacks and 4 more sacks.
• The Ducks are 2-4 ATS with a -6.0 PPG coverage margin, although they have won their games by an average points margin of 15.2 points. They are also evenly matched at 3:3 in the overall standings.
• Despite ranking 129th in Defensive EPA with major deficiencies in both the run and pass, Purdue’s defensive line ranks 23rd with a sack rate of 8.1% and a sacks per pressure rate of 27.5% 18th place.
• Purdue fired OC Graham Harrell two weeks ago and replaced him with new OC Jason Simmons, who was with the team for nine months as an analyst and has only been coaching in college for two years after making the jump from high school.

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Expert picks and predictions for Oregon Ducks @ Purdue Boilermakers

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Our model calculates predictions for every moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points such as past performance, player matchups and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we place its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to determine a relative confidence level for each bet.

Here are the best bets our model predicts for Oregon @ Purdue:

• Money line: NBC Sports recommends a play on the moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports recommends a game at the Oregon Ducks ATS.
• Game overall: NBC Sports is staying away from a game with a Game Total of 60.5.

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• Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
• Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
• Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
• Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
• Eric Froton (@CFFroton)