Dolphins vs. Colts prediction: odds, expert picks, QB matchup, injury update, betting trends and stats

With questions at quarterback and losses mounting, the Miami Dolphins (2-3) and Indianapolis Colts (3-3) meet on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Miami has had its bye week but still returns to the field without its star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who remains in concussion protocol. The Dolphins’ offense has been terrible with Tua on the sidelines, as Miami has scored just 10, 3, 12 and 10 points in his absence over the last four games. However, Indy is the proud owner of the 3^approx worst defense in the NFL. Could this be the perfect cure for the Dolphins’ ills?

According to some reports, Indy QB1 Anthony Richardson (oblique) was healthy enough to start last week, but was ruled out for the second straight week due to an abundance of caution. He is expected to return, but after two weeks off this year and the fact that he spent most of his rookie season injured, the question is whether the Colts will go with the dynamic but unpredictable Richardson on Sunday are better than the immobile but more precise Joe Flacco in the middle?

Considering the questionable status of RB1 Jonathan Taylor and WR1 Michael Pittman Jr., this is likely a deal breaker for bettors until the lineups/injury reports are released on Sunday.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup and find a few sweats.

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Game details and how to watch Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts live on Sunday

• Date: Sunday, October 20, 2024
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Website: Lucas Oil Stadium
• City: Indianapolis, Indiana
• TV/Streaming: FOX

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Dolphins @ Colts odds

Wednesday’s latest odds courtesy of DraftKings:

• Money line: Miami Dolphins (+124), Indianapolis Colts (-148))
• Spread: Colt -3 (-108)
• In total: 43.5

There was some money for the Dolphins as the Colts’ number moved down half a point from -3.5. The overall value is 43.5.

Be sure to check out DraftKings to get the latest odds and player props for every matchup on this week’s NFL schedule!

NBC Sports Bet Best Bets

As mentioned, it is difficult to evaluate any aspect of this match until we know who is ready for Sunday’s game. Last week, Michael Pittman Jr. was ruled out by some credible sources, but that was premature. He had practiced on Friday and played on Sunday and was a factor in Indy’s win. With Pittman, Jonathan Taylor, Trey Sermon and Josh Downs each questionable and a starting quarterback yet to be announced, we want to get some answers before betting. If Richardson plays and at least one of Taylor or Sermon is dressed, expect a ball-control attack for Indy. This brings the UNDER into play.

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Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts team stats, betting trends

• The Colts are 5-1 ATS this season.
• The Dolphins have won 6 of their last 8 games following a bye.
• The UNDER has won money in 5 of the Dolphins’ last 6 games (83%) after a bye week
• The Colts are 3-3 OVER this season.
• The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS and 1-4 OVER this season.

Quarterback matchup for Miami @ Indianapolis

Dolphins: Tyler Huntley – the career backup gets his chance in Miami due to injuries to Tua and Skylar Thompson. Has started the last two weeks and was more effective last weekend against New England, throwing for 194 yards but failing to reach the end zone and being intercepted once.

Colt: Anthony Richardson – 2nd^ndThe pro is expected to return to the field in his first year after missing two weeks with an oblique injury. He completed just 50.6% of his passes in his 4 games, throwing 6 picks and just 3 TD throws. Joe Flacco may not be as dynamic as Richardson, but the veteran is completing 65.7% of his passes and has thrown 7 TD passes and just 1 INT in just over two games this season.

Dolphins and Colts injury update

• Colts RB1 Jonathan Taylor (ankle) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
• Colts RB2 Trey Sermon (knee) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
• Colts WR1 Michael Pittman Jr. (back) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
• Colts WR2 Josh Downs (toe) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
• Colts QB1 Anthony Richardson (oblique) was scheduled to practice Wednesday but is questionable for Sunday’s game.
• Dolphins’ QB1 Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) has been declared OUT for Sunday’s game
• Dolphins’ RB1 De’Von Achane is in the final stages of the concussion protocol and is questionable for Sunday’s game.
• Dolphins’ LB Bradley Chubb (knee) has been declared OUT for Sunday’s game.
• Dolphins QB2 Skylar Thompson (unknown) is questionable for Sunday’s game.
• Dolphins’ Jordan Poyer (unknown) is questionable for Sunday’s game.

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Expert picks and predictions for Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts

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Our model calculates predictions for every moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points such as past performance, player matchups and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we place its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to determine a relative confidence level for each bet.

Here are the best bets our model predicts for Miami @ Indianapolis:

• Money line: NBC Sports is staying away from a game on the money line
• Spread: NBC Sports leans toward using the Dolphins against the spread
• Total runs: NBC Sports is leaning towards a game with the total score over 43.5 points.

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