WNBA Finals odds, picks, best bets

Minnesota stole Game 1 of the WNBA Finals after a historic and heroic 15-point comeback in the final five minutes.

However, the Liberty were red hot in the first quarter of Game 2, took a commanding lead over the Lynx and won, evening the series at 1-1.

What can we expect in Game 3 on Wednesday night at Target Center? Will the Liberty be able to turn the home game in their favor or can the Lynx get one game closer to the championship?

Here’s our preview of Game 3 (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) with a prediction and a tip.

WNBA Finals: Liberty vs. Lynx Game 3 Odds

WNBA Finals: Liberty vs. Minnesota Game 3 Prediction

After a terrible shooting performance in Game 1, the Liberty bounced back in Game 2, knocking down about 48% of their field goal attempts and 46% of their 3-point attempts.

That kind of efficiency is unsustainable against a Lynx team that ranked first in opponents’ effective field goal percentage and had the second-lowest (best) defensive rating during the regular season.

What is lasting, however, is the dominance we saw from the Liberty on the glass.

They outgained Minnesota by an average of 9.5 boards per game, which will continue to be a problem for the Lynx.

The Liberty scored double-digit offensive rebounds in Games 1 and 2 and annihilated the Lynx on second-chance points. In short: Sandra Brondello’s team doesn’t need to shoot well from the floor to hold off Minnesota.

The Liberty also did a phenomenal job of limiting the number of shots Napheesa Collier was able to fire.

No player has been as consistently dominant and efficient as Collier this postseason, but getting her to 12 field goal attempts is a huge victory. If they can do that again, their chances of an away win will skyrocket.

Collier took more than 12 shots in every game in which she was on the floor for at least 30 minutes this season, so the Liberty will once again focus on keeping the ball out of her hands and forcing other players to beat her .

Another focus that was evident in Game 2 was battling Minnesota’s three-pointers, even if that meant getting beat off the dribble.

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WNBA Finals: Liberty vs. Lynx Game 3 Pick

The Liberty don’t care about Minnesota’s inside game, as the Lynx finished last in points this season.

With Jonquel Jones and Breanna Stewart giving them a significant size advantage up front, the Liberty will lean on that for the rest of the series.

Ultimately, the Liberty’s perfectly executed plan in Game 2 gives us the confidence to put up 3.5 points with them on the road.

Pick: Liberty -3.5 (-110, DraftKings)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Andrew Norton hinders the NBA, WNBA, NFL, college basketball and football, UFC and golf. During the 2022-23 NBA season, he achieved an outstanding 14.1% ROI by cashing in 60% of his NBA spread picks and led Tallysight in the SportsIQ metric.