close
close

Here’s who’s ahead in the key battlegrounds of the 2024 election

Here’s who’s ahead in the key battlegrounds of the 2024 election

Topline

Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by seven points in Georgia, while Harris has a two-point lead in North Carolina. That’s according to new swing state polls out Wednesday that suggest the race remains incredibly close just weeks before Election Day.

Important facts

Pennsylvania: Harris has a four-point lead in two New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls as of Saturday, 50% to 47% (but closer to four points if not rounded up), and also has a lead in an Oct. 9 poll the same lead Quinnipiac poll, although Friday’s Wall Street Journal poll puts Trump ahead by a point, 46% to 45%, and Thursday’s Emerson poll also showed him ahead by a point, 49% to 48% . The Five Thirty Eight poll average puts Trump ahead of Harris by 0.7 points.

Arizona: Trump leads Harris 51% to 46% in the Times poll, a lead that is almost unchanged from last month, and also leads Harris 49% to 47% in the Emerson poll as of Thursday, while Harris is with 47% ahead of Trump. to 45%, according to the latest Wall Street Journal poll. Trump is up 1.6 points in the Five Thirty Eight poll average.

Michigan: Harris leads Trump 47% to 45% in the Wall Street Journal poll, a change from the Emerson poll showing Trump tied with Harris and from Trump’s three-point lead (50% to 47% ) in the Oct. 9 Quinnipiac poll Harris is still ahead in Michigan by 0.8 in the Five Thirty Eight poll average.

Wisconsin: Harris has a one-point lead in Friday’s Journal poll, while Trump leads Harris 48% to 46% in the Oct. 9 Quinnipiac poll and both are at 49% in the Emerson poll. Harris’ average from Five Thirty Eight is up 0.7 points.

Nevada: According to the Journal poll, Trump is up 5 points. Harris is up one point in the Emerson poll, 48% to 47%. Harris leads the Five Thirty Eight poll average by 0.8 points.

Big number

Harris leads Trump by 1.7 points in the Real Clear Politics national polling average, while the FiveThirtyEight average shows her leading by 2.6 points.

Important background

Harris became the nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 due to an intraparty revolt following his debate performance – dramatically changing the fortunes of Democrats. Before the postponement, polls consistently showed Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, although Biden won six of the seven states (excluding North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Further reading

Trump vs. Harris polls 2024: Harris remains ahead in four new polls (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris narrowly leads in one of her key states (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris has less than 1 point lead in poll averages (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Almost tied in new 7th swing state (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Most polls show Trump ahead in crucial swing state (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris has narrow lead – but struggles with Latino voters (Forbes)

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Polls Show Trump Has Slight Advantage (Forbes)

Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump has advantage in latest swing state poll (Forbes)

Related Post