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Although Western Kentucky won last year’s meeting with Sam Houston 28-23, Wednesday night’s rematch will look completely different given the changes both teams have undergone at quarterback.

Austin Reed from Western Kentucky went to the NFL. TJ Finley, who spent his first three seasons in the SEC at LSU and Auburn, was the likely candidate for Reed’s spot, but it was Caden Velkamp who won the starting job.

We saw a similar scenario with the Bearkats when junior college transfer Hunter Watson defeated graduate transfer Grant Gunnell, who began his career at Arizona. Given these changes, both teams have adapted their offenses to the abilities of their quarterbacks.

While each team’s strengths are undoubtedly different, one has a clear lead on Wednesday night.

Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston odds

Western Kentucky outlook

After seeing his team throw the ball nearly 61% of the time last year, coach Tyson Helton has shown a reduced willingness to take risks this season, as the Hilltoppers will throw the ball 51.6% of the time in 2024.

But even though Western Kentucky has increased its run-play rate to 48.6%, it still ranks 91st in that category.

Unfortunately, calling more running plays can’t hide the fact that the Hilltoppers are having trouble moving the ball on the floor.

According to Game on Paper, they rank 111th in rushing with 4.30 yards per carry.

As a result, WKU’s time of possession averages less than 30 minutes.

Third down conversion has been a problem this season, with the Hilltoppers ranking 106th with a 34.3% conversion rate.

While the 4-2 record looks promising, Western Kentucky needs to control the game better, especially when facing tougher competition.

Outlook by Sam Houston

Sam Houston is also in transition from a pass-happy offense.

The Bearkats ranked 14th in passing percentage last year (56.9%), but ranked 90th in explosive plays (receptions of 20 yards or more).

As a result, the offense was relatively inefficient, ranking 121st in adjusted EPA/Play.

This season, the Bearkats are throwing the ball even less often (125th with a 36.7% passing percentage) while moving to 50th in adjusted EPA/play.

The Bearkats rank eighth in rushing yards per game (229), which helped them win the possession battle by nearly 6.5 minutes.

In six games, Watson already has 370 rushing yards at the quarterback position, more than his predecessor Keegan Shoemaker did all of last year (11 games).

The key for Sam Houston is to move forward and try to wear down the opponent.

Turnovers have been a problem for the Bearkats since moving up to the FBS level.

Their 13 interceptions were the 26th most of 2023, and this year they are more than halfway to that mark with six games left to play.

Choice between Western Kentucky and Sam Houston

As much as Western Kentucky tries to have a more balanced attack, it will likely continue to struggle running the ball against Sam Houston.

It’s not that the Bearkats defense is great at stopping the run; It’s just that the Hilltoppers’ offense isn’t particularly good in that area.

On the other hand, we know the Bearkats’ offense will continue to focus on the run against a Western Kentucky team that ranks 85th in opponent yards per carry (5.25).

Betting on college football?

It will be a classic Pros vs. Joe’s game with public money going to Western Kentucky, although the bookmakers have adjusted the spread in Sam Houston’s favor.

Avoid baiting with the trendy dog ​​and put the points at -2.5 with the Bearkats.

Best bet: Sam Houston -2.5 (-110, bet365)

Why should you trust New York Post Betting?

For the New York Post, Michael Arinze hinders most major sports. He has won two 15-leg teasers and a 12-leg parlay in his betting career, which spanned eight games of the Little League World Series. Most recently, he precisely selected the finalists for the 2024 European Championship and the Copa América.