Michigan vs. Illinois football prediction: What the analyzes say

Big Ten football returns to the stage this weekend as No. 22 Illinois hosts No. 24 Michigan on Saturday in Week 8 of college football. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that will determine the winners.

Illinois (5-1) beat Purdue by a single point in overtime last week to move to 2-1 in Big Ten play and hope to stay in contention for the conference championship.

Michigan lost its second game of the season on the road to Washington two weeks ago, went 2-1 in Big Ten play and now has virtually no margin for error in the playoff race.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s take a look at the latest college football predictions from computer prediction model Football Power Index.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times, utilizes key analytics from both teams and selects winners based on a projected point spread per game.

So far, the models are predicting a very close game between these Big Ten rivals.

Michigan is projected to win the game outright in the slim majority of 59.6 percent of recent computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Illinois as the expected winner in the remaining 40.4 percent of Sims.

Overall, Michigan led in 11,920 simulations of the game, while Illinois came out on top in the other 8,080 predictions.

And the index also predicts a very close game on the scoreboard.

According to the model’s latest projection, Michigan is projected to be 3.8 points better than Illinois with the current makeup of both teams on the same field.

If so, that would be just enough for the Wolverines to cover the spread against the Illini.

That’s because Michigan is the 3-point favorite against Illinois, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total score for the game at 43.5 points.

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -155 for Michigan and +135 for Illinois.

According to the latest spread consensus picks for the game, a slim majority of bettors are giving Illinois the benefit of the doubt over Michigan.

53 percent of bets currently predict the Illini will either win in an upset or keep the game within close range.

And the other 47 percent of bets assume the Wolverines will win the game and cover the spread.

Illinois is sixth among Big Ten teams with a 3.8 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 7.7 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model gives Michigan a 2 percent chance of making the 12-team playoffs and an overall win projection of 6.8 games this season.

The college football rankings Football Power Index (FPI) and computer prediction model is a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games and use a combination of key analytics including past results, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and a team’s schedule.

The teams are not ranked by talent as in other rankings, but by a expected points lead per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (56)
2. Oregon (6)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. LSU
9. Iowa State
10. Clemson
11. Tennessee
12. Notre Dame
13. BYU
14. Texas A&M
15. Boise State
16. Indiana
17. Kansas State
18. Ole Miss
19. Missouri
20. Pittsburgh
21. SMU
22. Illinois
23. army
24. Michigan
25. marine

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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