The ‘Peak TV’ era is over, but the drama market can recover, say screenwriters | Features

For many people working in theater production, one of the most common refrains of the year was “survive until 2025.” Amid a decline in television advertising, strike disruptions, rising inflation and a slowdown in spending by global streamers, the drama production community grappled with the abrupt end of the “peak TV” era. A number of theater production companies have closed or scaled back production, several suppliers have gone bankrupt and many in the industry have endured extended work stoppages, lost jobs or given up on television altogether.

Speaking at the Royal Television Society (RTS) conference in London last month, Channel 4 chief executive Alex Mahon admitted that 2023 had been “terrible for indies and this year hasn’t been much better”. Even Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos, whose platform was recently deemed the “winner of the streaming wars.” Financial Times Article that alluded to “great fears in our industry right now” at the same RTS event.

“There are concerns about declining investment, there is the threat of AI and there is competition from platforms like YouTube and TikTok,” Sarandos said.

Well, 2025 is just a few months away. Will it really be better next year? Can we speak of the first beginnings of the upswing? “Absolutely,” Mahon said at the RTS event in London, careful to clarify her answer: “I don’t think we’re going to go back to the boom times of previous years with unbridled, uncontrolled spending.”

Her point of view is echoed by several industry executives Screen International interviewed in advance of the international program fair Mipcom in Cannes, which takes place from October 21st to 24th. Cathy Payne, managing director of Banijay Rights, says the industry is still going through a difficult period, pointing to the streamer fix and industry consolidation such as Skydance’s merger with Paramount. Pre-sales and financing therefore remain a challenge.

“A lot of the buyers, particularly in the US, that have backed some of the bigger budget scripted series are just not there at the moment,” says Payne, who believes the situation has improved over the year but notes that Buyers are definitely more cautious.

“People are probably more risk-averse and will go with something that’s proven to work,” she continues, pointing to multi-season renewals for shows like Call the midwifea Neal Street production for the BBC, and Death in paradisea Red Planet production also made for the BBC. Similarly, the most important titles on Banijay Rights’ sales list are the second seasons of released on Mipcom Wolf Hall, SAS Rogue Heroes And Marie Antoinette.

Buyers are also looking for ever-popular genres like crime novels or projects based on well-known IPs. Banijay Rights, for example, is also selling UKTV Play’s “reimagined” crime drama update Bergeracwhich ran for nine series on the BBC in the 1980s.

Safe bets

Meanwhile, procedurals — crime, medical and legal shows — which have long been the cornerstone of network dramas, are becoming increasingly popular, even among cost-conscious streamers. For example, Max has ordered a 15-episode medical drama The Pitt from the team behind it HE. In a recent interview, Casey Bloys, chairman and CEO of HBO and Max Content, said The Pitt is a “good template” for a Max drama, “which is, for lack of a better word, a network drama, ongoing, tight storytelling at a reasonable price.”

It’s telling that crime dramas and series renewals feature prominently on the upcoming production slate for New York and London-based Playground Entertainment, which currently has an impressive seven series in production. This includes Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light and the fifth season of the rebooted vet drama All creatures great and small. At the top of the crime series is an adaptation of the classic by Georges Simenon Inspector Maigret Novels and Elizabeth Georges Inspector Lynley Secrets. Playground also produces period pieces The Hardacres and comedy-drama Small town, big historyDirector: Chris O’Dowd.

Playground co-chief executive David Stern says the company has been “focused and disciplined” in the projects it has developed. “We’ve been keeping a close eye on the creatives and whether they will work in the market – and whether we can produce them given the current financial constraints in the market,” he says.

Playground co-chief executive Scott Huff says the company regularly has conversations with distributors about the “consistent” types of shows that will be on the air. “What trips? Procedural crime, thrillers and high-octane dramas. Then there are the wonderful outliers, and we have developed things that we love and that we believe will also be wonderful outliers.”

An example of the latter is Playground’s Small town, big historya Sky original starring Christina Hendricks and Paddy Considine, about the impact of a Hollywood production rolling into a rural village on the Irish border. “It’s the kind of show that broadcasters no longer produce 10 times a year, but they still have to find things that appeal to a more specific audience and then break through,” says Stern.

Certainly many feel passionately that the market needs to support original, risky projects as much as safer genres. Witness the cheers and cheers for Richard Gadd during one of his Primetime Emmy Award acceptance speeches last month Baby reindeer: “I know the industry is in crisis right now… but I believe no crisis has ever been overcome without a willingness to take risks,” Gadd said. “If Baby reindeer has proven everything that there is no set formula – that you don’t need big stars, proven IPs, long-running series and comprehensive storytelling to be a success.”

Both Stern and Playground’s Huff say they’re optimistic about the prospects for scripted television. “Every market will have its ups and downs, but there are still a lot of people around the world clamoring for big drama,” says Stern. “That’s not going to change, whether it’s producing 500 scripted shows or 400 scripted shows – there’s obviously going to be ups and downs.

“In many ways it’s about price,” he continues. “And some places probably won’t make riskier bets on certain types of shows. But the need from streamers to linear broadcasters to fill those pipelines will always be there.”

European stability

This optimistic sentiment is shared by Pascal Breton, CEO and co-founder of Paris-based production, financing and distribution group Federation, which has 25 labels in Europe, the UK and the US, among others The office. You can see what’s coming on the Mipcom list Sherlock and daughterCrime drama CurfewHistorical drama Miss Austen and thrillers I, Jack Wright. According to Breton, the market for commissioning and acquiring plays is currently “stable” in Europe, but more difficult in the United States.

The European free-TV and pay-TV market, he says, “isn’t growing, but it’s not slowing down.” The reality is that free TV needs its primetime dramas. But they can’t buy American dramas because they’re no longer on the channels – the Germans and Italians are buying more French series. And the French free TV channels are buying more European shows because they don’t have enough French ones.”

As for commissioning, Breton says streamers are back in Europe after a two-year slowdown: “Netflix says they don’t have enough shows in France and want to commission more, but it’s difficult to find good projects, and that “It takes time.” to develop it further.” In his opinion, the same applies to Canal+.

Breton also believes EU investment obligations for US streamers, which require platforms to spend a certain percentage of their revenues on European content, are having an impact “particularly in France, but also in Italy and soon in Germany.”

The US market remains difficult, in part due to ongoing consolidation and restructuring as well as drama production costs. “The cost is about three times higher [in the US]says Breton. “If you fail a show, you lose a lot of money.”

The big challenge, he adds, is the affordability of drama. “Broadcasters can’t afford to be alone on a show. You can’t pay 70% of a show’s budget, the rest comes from subsidies. You’d rather pay 50% or 60%. Then financing becomes difficult and we have to find another broadcaster.”

Hence the growing number of co-productions in Europe. “The co-production model is back,” says Breton. He cites Federation’s upcoming adaptation of the cult graphic novel Lucky Lukea co-pro between France Télévisions and Disney. The association is also developing a show about the Tour de France cycling race. “I have France Télévisions, I hope to have Germany, and I have strong interest from one or two streamers,” he says.

Of course, big bets are still being made. One of the biggest titles at Mipcom this year is MGM+’s adaptation of George R. Stewart’s post-apocalyptic novel The earth remainsabout the last survivors on Earth after a contagious plague. Todd Komarnicki, showrunner for The earth remainswhose feature credits include Defile And ElevenHe says: “The great stuff is being made. The shows that matter to people and feel like they can be a big asset in the marketplace and culturally.”

However, he jokes that the days when every call to Netflix gave a green light are over. “Who knows if they will return again?”