Nebraska vs. Indiana Prediction: Kurtis Rourke Rolling Again?

Don’t customize your sets! Yes, it’s mid-October and the Indiana Hoosiers are a 6-0 team with Big Ten title aspirations. Meanwhile, a Nebraska Cornhuskers team that went 5-7 in its first year under Matt Rhule has already reached its 2023 win total with true freshman phenom Dylan Raiola under center.

Can the Hoosiers stay perfect against a tough Cornhuskers team? Our Nebraska vs. Indiana prediction examines the latest odds and offers a final score prediction for this Big Ten matchup.

Nebraska vs Indiana betting preview

All of Nebraska versus Indiana Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are as of Wednesday, October 16, 2024. CFN spreads are from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

• CFN FPM spread
  Indiana -9
• Spread
  Indiana -6.5
• Money line
  Indiana -238, Nebraska +195
• Over/Under
  50.5 points
• Playtime
  Noon ET
• Location
  Memorial Stadium | Bloomington, IN
• Predicted weather at Kick
  64 degrees, sunny, 3 mph wind
• Here’s how to watch
  fox

Home advantage. An undefeated record. A victorious record in a direct duel against the Cornhuskers. Everything points to Curt Cignetti’s thriving Indiana team, and the oddsmakers are favoring the Hoosiers. The spread has increased over the week but is still slightly below the CFN FPM line, which gives Indiana a touchdown and change advantage over its Big Ten opponent.

MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator

After failing to cover in its season-opening win over the FIU Panthers, Indiana was on fire, scoring five straight goals for an average margin of victory of 32.7 points. They cover the spread by an average of 12.3 points per game. Nebraska has been a single-digit underdog on three teams this season and covered once (Colorado) with a push against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.

Nebraska’s probability of winning

The Cornhuskers are bigger underdogs with FPM than they were in Vegas. Nebraska has a 25.1% chance of winning the game, according to the metric, which is an implied margin of about nine points. The Cornhuskers have a tough schedule at the end of the year as they will be underdogs in four of the remaining six games. Here are their win probabilities for the rest of the season:

• in Indiana: 25.1%
• at Ohio State: 8.9%
• vs. UCLA: 87.8%
• at USC: 35.4%
• vs Wisconsin: 63.1%
• in Iowa: 45.7%

Indiana’s probability of winning

Conversely, the Hoosiers have a 74.9% chance per FPM of winning the game. The Hoosiers have a great chance to have a great year as they are favored in all but one game. Here are their win probabilities for the rest of the season:

• vs. Nebraska: 74.9%
• against Washington: 81.1%
• in the state of Michigan: 79.6%
• against Michigan: 62.6%
• at Ohio State: 20.1%
• against Purdue: 91.7%

Nebraska vs Indiana Prediction

Although the Hoosiers have had a favorable schedule, their success in their first year under Cignetti is no coincidence. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke was fantastic and finally lived up to his promise after a disappointing 2023 in Ohio.

This will be Indiana’s best test as Nebraska’s defense is among the best in the country. However, the Cornhusker offense struggled against stout defenses, and despite being overshadowed, the Hoosier defense was great.

The key is Nebraska freshman Dylan Raiola, who showed elite potential early but has struggled lately. The difference in recent weeks has been that Nebraska’s defense can contain weaker units to keep games close.

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I have a lot of confidence in Cignetti and his offense, which has scored 30 points in every game this season and 40 points in five straight games. Nebraska can’t hope for this game to be 0-0 at halftime like it has been the past few weeks. If the Hoosiers get off to a good start, they will have the firepower necessary to keep their foot on the gas pedal and turn the game into a blowout.

I believe in Indiana. At some point they will make a mistake, but Nebraska’s offense is not the unit that can push them. Don’t expect the Hoosiers to score 40 points for the sixth straight game, but don’t be surprised if they can move the ball, even against a physical defense.

Give me the Hoosiers and the dots because I love that little line. Indiana will also have to do a lot of work to put this behind them. This is the week the Hoosiers will finally be taken seriously.

Forecast: Indiana 34, Nebraska 20

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