Can Jalen Milroe beat UT?

The Alabama Crimson Tide and Tennessee Volunteers were very fortunate to escape with home wins last week, resulting in a meeting of two 5-1 teams with a fan base that wasn’t particularly feeling great.

While neither team looks particularly dangerous, each team controls its own destiny in the College Football Playoff. Find out who we think will win in this Alabama vs. Tennessee prediction.

Alabama vs. Tennessee betting preview

All of Alabama vs. Tennessee Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are as of Wednesday, October 16, 2024. CFN spreads are from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

• CFN FPM spread
  Alabama -2
• Spread
  Alabama -3
• Money line
  Alabama -148, Tennessee +124
• Over/Under
  56.5 points
• Playtime
  3:30 p.m. ET
• Location
  Neyland Stadium | Knoxville, TN
• Predicted weather at Kick
  71 degrees, sunny, three mile per hour wind
• Here’s how to watch
  ABC

Alabama entered Sunday’s game as a slim favorite, and the line has gotten further and further away from the Vols as the week has gone on. The Crimson Tide has had the advantage over Tennessee in the past, with Josh Heupel’s team’s 2022 victory sticking out like a sore thumb in a string of losses in the modern era. Alabama holds a 59-39-7 all-time winning record against its SEC opponents.

MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator

Tennessee actually has a better spread record than Alabama this season, covering four times, compared to the Crimson Tide’s 3-3 record. Kalen DeBoer’s team failed to cover the last two games (albeit as three-point favorites). However, the Vols have also failed to cover in the last two games. On Saturday they go into the game as underdogs for the first time in 2024.

Alabama’s probability of winning

FPM favors the Crimson Tide, but only slightly. According to the metric, Alabama has a 52.8% chance of winning the game, which is an implied margin of about two points. This game represents one of Alabama’s toughest challenges of the year, with the only game with a lower probability of winning being a road game in Baton Rouge. Here are their win probabilities for the rest of the season:

• in Tennessee: 52.8%
• against Missouri: 80.2%
• at LSU: 50.0%
• against Mercer: 99.9%
• in Oklahoma: 79.3%
• at USC: 94.1%

Tennessee’s probability of winning

Conversely, the volunteers have a 47.2% chance per FPM of winning the game. This game represents Tennessee’s second toughest challenge on the rest of the schedule. Here are their win probabilities for the remainder of the season:

• vs. Alabama: 47.2%
• against Kentucky: 81.6%
• vs. Mississippi State: 95.9%
• in Georgia: 25.4%
• vs. UTEP: 99.9%
• against Vanderbilt: 79.6%

Alabama vs Tennessee Prediction

Each team has a typically strong unit that has disappointed so far. The Crimson Tide defense seemed impenetrable in the first half of the Georgia game, but since then it has given up 63 points in the last 10 quarters.

On the other hand, Josh Heupel’s offenses are always among the best in the conference, but this season has been a struggle against SEC opponents. After surpassing the 50-point threshold in the non-conference schedule, Tennessee scored 25 points or fewer in three consecutive games and missed the 20-point mark in regulation in its last two games.

The question is: which unit is more worrisome?

FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network newsletter to get unique stories from the world of college football delivered straight to your inbox!

For me, the answer is Tennessee’s offense, as they seem to be lacking playmakers outside of Squirrel White and Dylan Sampson. Nico Iamaleava looked like a rookie against SEC defenses, as he averaged just 174 yards rushing, threw just one touchdown and had 10 sacks in three conference games.

The other units were stable, but also showed cracks. Tennessee has benefited from three straight games in which the opponent had to change its quarterback (Oklahoma by choice, Arkansas and Florida by injury). Florida led 10-0 when Graham Mertz left with an injury and scored just seven points the rest of the game.

Alabama’s offensive line let up a lot of pressure against South Carolina’s talented front. Now they have the Tennessee front seven, and that’s the key to the game.

If Alabama can keep Jalen Milroe reasonably clean, the playmakers on the outside will have to score against Tennessee. On the other hand, I don’t think much will change for the Tennessee offense unless Alabama fights more coverages defensively.

I think Alabama will solve some of the defensive issues. I can’t guarantee the same for Tennessee’s offense.

Give me Alabama (I’ve already beaten the Crimson Tide when they were +1 on Saturday) in a “get it right” game. Iamaleava will have more growing pains among the rookies, and any talk of a repeat of the 1998 season will stop in Knoxville.

I’m leaning towards the minor leagues because I don’t think Tennessee can go from the 31 combined regulation points against Florida and Arkansas to nearly that against Alabama.

Forecast: Alabama 31, Tennessee 17

The College Football Network brings you the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC and every Group of Five conference, as well as the FBS Independent schedule.