Can the Cowboys control Jake Retzlaff and the Rampant Cougars?

In Friday night’s main matchup, the Oklahoma State Cowboys travel to Provo to defeat an overpowering BYU Cougars team. One of those teams has been touted as the Big 12’s heir apparent in a post-college football realignment, but it’s Kilani Sitake’s team that has College Football Playoff aspirations heading into the Week 8 matchup.

Can the Cowboys find their mojo or will the Cougars keep rolling? Our Oklahoma State vs. BYU prediction has all the answers.

Oklahoma State vs. BYU betting preview

All of Georgia versus Texas Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are as of Monday, October 16, 2024. CFN spreads are from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

• CFN FPM spread
  BYU-10
• Spread
  BYU -9.5
• Money line
  BYU -310, Oklahoma State +250
• Over/Under
  53 points
• Playtime
  10:15 p.m. ET
• Location
  LaVell Edwards Stadium | Provo, UT
• Predicted weather at Kick
  48 degrees, partly sunny, six mph wind
• Here’s how to watch
  ESPN

BYU began the week as an 8.5-point favorite, but as the week progressed, the official oddsmaker’s line closed at the original CFN-FPM spread. Meanwhile, the money line has expanded in the Cougars’ favor as the team looks for a seventh win of the 2024 college football season. BYU is one of only two teams in the country to have a perfect record entering the game.

MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is 2-4 and failed to cover (by a significant margin) in the only game in which they were an underdog this season. You will be hard-pressed to find clearer trend indicators pointing to an inevitable outcome. Although teams have reached the over more often this year, Oklahoma State hasn’t scored more than 20 points in its last three games.

Oklahoma State’s probability of winning

FPM isn’t particularly high for the Cowboys after three straight losses. According to this metric, the Cowboys have a 23.4% chance of winning the game, which is an implied margin of about 10 points. If the Cowboys pull off the upset, they can salvage the season with a favorable schedule to end the year.

Here are their win probabilities for the rest of the season:

• at BYU: 23.4%
• at Baylor: 64.6%
• vs. Arizona State: 50.8%
• at TCU: 57.4%
• vs Texas Tech: 51.8%
• in Colorado: 53.4%

BYU’s probability of winning

Conversely, the Cougars have a 76.6% chance of winning the game. This game represents BYU’s second toughest challenge remaining on the schedule, and the Cougars can continue their magical season if they beat Oklahoma State.

Here are their win probabilities for the rest of the season:

• vs. Oklahoma State: 76.6%
• at UCF: 81.1%
• in Utah: 50.0%
• against Kansas: 87.8%
• in the state of Arizona: 74.6%
• against Houston: 93.5%

Prediction for Oklahoma State vs. BYU

Oklahoma State arrives in Provo at a crucial time in their season. After three straight losses, the Cowboys have the potential to fade into obscurity, but Mike Gundy has a knack for piling up wins and salvaging some respectability.

LaVell Edwards is one of the most intimidating environments in college football, even if the team is just okay and the home-field advantage for the Cougars cannot be underestimated. A Friday night kick for an undefeated team? The stadium will rock.

Furthermore, the Cougars are going full throttle. It is led by a defense that is excellent at denying the opponent the best option. While that was supposed to be Ollie Gordon for the Cowboys, this year it was Alan Bowman throwing to a talented trio of receivers.

While it’s been a fluke so far, I wouldn’t be surprised if Oklahoma State’s offense had a better game on Friday, but it could play a role now.

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Oklahoma State’s defense is in shambles, and as BYU’s offense has slowly improved over the course of the season, that side of the ball is where I see the biggest mismatch.

I expect BYU to control the clock and wear down a terrible Oklahoma State defense. Like so many times this year, expect the Cougars to escape late after frustrating Oklahoma State early.

Take the Cougars and the points while keeping it just under the total.

Forecast: BYU 31, Oklahoma State 17

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