Argentina vs. Bolivia prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Lionel Messi in the World Cup qualifier

Lionel Messi and Argentina find themselves in an unexpectedly precarious position at the top of World Cup qualifying as they host CONMEBOL minnows Bolivia on Tuesday night.

The Albiceleste face a double embarrassment after a disappointing draw with Venezuela at the weekend, while traditional bottom-placed Bolivia stunned Colombia to catapult themselves into the middle of qualifying. In fact, Argentina only stayed in first place thanks to the surprise of Colombia, who missed the opportunity to overtake Messi and Co.

This game would normally be a foregone conclusion as Bolivia has traditionally struggled away from its fortress of La Paz and playing away against an international giant has proved too big a task. But at this moment, with Argentina suddenly vulnerable and Bolivia in fine form, there are rumors that things could be different this time.

Bolivia have not beaten Argentina since their 2-0 home win in World Cup qualifying in 2017, and they have never beaten Argentina away from home either.

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Argentina vs. Bolivia prediction, odds

• Moneyline Lean: Draw (+1200)
• Result prediction: Argentina – Bolivia 1:1
• Best choice: Bolivia double chance (+800)

There is no question that Bolivia has made progress in recent months and they will make things difficult for undermanned Argentina.

Expectations of a first-ever win in Buenos Aires are likely to fall well short, but a draw is certainly within reach. With such unfavorable odds for the reigning World Cup and Copa América winners, it is extremely valuable that the guests can pull off a surprise.

Facts about the game Argentina vs. Bolivia

• Date: Tuesday, October 15, 2024
• Kick-off time: 9:00 p.m. local time (8:00 p.m. ET / 5:00 p.m. PT)
• Location: Estadio Mas Monumental (Buenos Aires, Argentina)
• Referee: Kevin Ortega (PER)
• Last meeting: Bolivia – Argentina 0:3 (October 15, 2024 | World Cup qualification)

MORE: Team news and expected lineups for Argentina and Bolivia ahead of this World Cup qualifier

Argentina vs Bolivia best bet

• Choose: Both teams score – Yes
• Opportunities: +140 (BetMGM)

There is absolute reason to believe that Bolivia can score in this game, something they have failed to do in their last five games in Argentina.

This Argentina side is injury-plagued and is without workhorses Nico Gonzalez and Marcos Acuna, while Alexis Mac Allister is not fully fit and Alejandro Garnacho is out of the squad. Incredibly, they were outscored by Venezuela last time out by a margin of 16-8 (6-4 on goal).

If you compare that against Bolivia, who have shown exceptional attacking form in the last three games, there could be problems. La Verde managed to get off 14 shots at home against Colombia while playing a man shorthanded, scored two goals against Chile despite only taking five total shots, and scored four goals against Venezuela with a total of 19 shots.

Argentina vs Bolivia Prop Bet

• Choose: Under 3.5 total goals
• Opportunities: +110 (FanDuel)

While we are confident that Bolivia can score, we also know that the game will be subdued. The chances of scoring are extremely high given Argentina’s history against Bolivia, as Argentina have scored at least three goals in each of their last three meetings, but this is not the same Bolivia they will be up against.

Under the leadership of new coach Oscar Villegas, Bolivia have defeated Colombia and Venezuela and conceded just a single away goal against Chile.

Meanwhile, Argentina looked listless for long stretches against Venezuela, even with Lionel Messi on the field. Lionel Scaloni traditionally doesn’t look to eliminate teams, instead pushing to control games and win 2-0. This could be tricky, especially if Bolivia continues to look as organized as it has in recent games.