Will Hudson Card or Ryan Browne start for the Boilermakers?

Week 8 marks just the fourth time the Oregon Ducks and Purdue Boilermakers have met, and only the third time since 1980. Can the home team pull off an unlikely win after the Ducks won the last two contests?

Let’s take a look at this underrated Big Ten battle with a full odds breakdown and more in our Oregon vs. Purdue prediction.

Oregon vs Purdue betting preview

All of Oregon vs. Purdue Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are as of Monday, October 14, 2024. CFN spreads are from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

• CFN FPM spread
  Oregon -23.5
• Spread
  Oregon-27
• Money line
  Oregon -3600, Purdue +1500
• Over/Under
  59 points
• Playtime
  8:00 p.m. ET, Friday, October 18th
• Location
  Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, Ind.
• Predicted weather at Kick
  53 degrees, 4 mph wind, clear
• Here’s how to watch
  fox

The total has increased half a point since the open, but the range has changed the most from Oregon -25 to -27.

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Both programs are 2-4 against the range this year, and the over/under trends are similarly split:

• The total has fallen BELOW in six of Oregon’s last nine games.
• The total has gone OVER in four of Purdue’s last five contests.

Oregon’s probability of winning

After defeating Ohio State in Week 7, it should come as no surprise that the Ducks have the advantage as the season progresses, starting with a 95.3% win probability against Purdue.

• vs. Illinois: 91.7%
• in Michigan: 74.6%
• against Maryland: 95.9%
• in Wisconsin: 88.1%
• against Washington: 94.3%

Purdue’s probability of winning

Even after pushing Illinois to the brink last week, the Boilermakers are in for a tough final stretch, as they have a 4.7% win probability against the Ducks and three other odds under 10% in their last five games.

• vs. Northwest: 57.4%
• at Ohio State: 2.8%
• vs. Penn State: 5.9%
• in the state of Michigan: 35.4%
• in Indiana: 8.3%

Oregon vs Purdue prediction

These teams couldn’t be further apart in the Big Ten standings. While Oregon is 6-0 and 3-0 in the conference, Purdue is 1-5 and 0-3 on its way to its worst season since 2015 (2-10).

Still, the Boilermakers are no strangers to massive upsets, overwhelming No. 2 Ohio State 49-20 in 2018. Plus, this is a potential trap game for the Ducks, who are on an emotional high after beating Ohio State at Autzen Stadium.

They face back-to-back ranking matchups with Illinois and Michigan after Week 8, but they shouldn’t discount the Boilermakers.

Just ask the Fighting Illini, who needed overtime to beat them 50-49 in Week 7. After firing offensive coordinator Graham Harrell, Purdue head coach Ryan Walters called plays for the first time with his backup QB in the lineup, no less.

The result was a 49-point explosion that starter Hudson Card could only dream of, earning Ryan Browne a first-team nod ahead of Friday night’s game against Oregon.

“The way he played, it would be unfair not to [start him]” Walters said of Browne this week. “So, you know, we’ll see if Hudson (Card) is available in the future.”

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Browne completed 18 of 26 passes for 297 yards and three touchdowns without an interception against Illinois and added another 118 yards on 17 carries. His dual-threat ability raises the floor of the offense, and while he will have his way against Oregon’s vaunted defense, Browne can score some points.

The problem is the defense, which ranks last in the Big Ten in yards allowed and gives up 39 points per game. Even if the Ducks start slow, they should win this game easily – but perhaps not as easily as the spread suggests. Take the Oregon moneyline, Purdue ATS and the over in this one.

Forecast: Oregon 41, Purdue 20

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