Charles Huff, Braylon Braxton should be your QB1

The Georgia State Panthers and Marshall Thundering Herd have met only twice, with the two splitting the series the last two years. Who will take the lead in 2024?

Get the latest betting odds, spread analysis and our picks in this Georgia State-Marshall prediction ahead of Thursday’s Sun Belt showdown.

Georgia State vs. Marshall betting preview

All Georgia State vs. Marshall Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are as of Monday, October 14, 2024. CFN spreads are from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

• CFN FPM spread
  Marshall -4.5
• Spread
  Marshall -9
• Money line
  Marshall -340, Georgia State +270
• Over/Under
  52 points
• Playtime
  7:00 p.m. ET, Thursday, October 17th
• Location
  Joan C. Edwards Stadium, Huntington, W.Va.
• Predicted weather at Kick
  58 degrees, 3 mph wind, sunny
• Here’s how to watch
  ESPN2

Although the spread was flat, the total rose to 52 after opening at 48.5.

MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator

This makes the Under an even sweeter game, especially when you consider the following trends:

• The total has fallen UNDER in five of Georgia State’s last six road games.
• The point total has fallen BELOW in four of Marshall’s last six contests.

When it comes to distribution, all signs point to the Thundering Herd, who are 5-0-1 ATS this season and 5-0 in their last five home contests. Meanwhile, Georgia State is a lackluster 1-4 ATS in 2024.

Georgia State’s probability of winning

Although the Panthers’ victory over Vanderbilt has become more impressive each week, they are still 2-3, with their only other win coming against Chattanooga at the FCS level.

As a result, the FPM gives Georgia State a 36.9% chance of defeating Marshall in Week 8. In fact, the program only has one chance one Game with a win probability greater than 50% for the rest of the season:

• at App State: 46.2%
• at UConn: 47.2%
• in James Madison: 11.0%
• vs. Arkansas State: 51.2%
• in the state of Texas: 11.9%
• vs. Coastal Carolina: 49.6%

Marshall’s probability of winning

Even though the spread in FPM is tighter than in sports betting, Marshall is still doing well with a win probability of 63.1%. And aside from a season-ending battle with James Madison, the final stage doesn’t seem all that difficult either:

• vs. UL-Monroe: 49.4%
• at Southern Miss: 61.9%
• vs. Coastal Carolina: 57.4%
• in the Old Dominion: 63.1%
• in James Madison: 16.7%

Georgia State vs Marshall Prediction

The Thundering Herd are coming off one of their worst losses of the season. They took a 23-3 lead into the fourth quarter against Georgia Southern, but left 21 unanswered points in the final frame and fell to 3-3.

Playing against a Panthers team that averages 21.4 points per game (111th in the FBS) and concedes 29.4 (99th) is the perfect place to bounce back.

The game script has forced Georgia State to a 61% passing rate this season, and QB Christian Veilleux couldn’t do much with it as he completed 58.6% of his passes at 6.5 yards per clip.

MORE: Simulate the college football season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

Marshall has his own QB problem – thought on his own merits. Head coach Charles Huff made Stone Earle his starter, even though Braylon Braxton, who transferred to Tulsa, outplayed him. He had a higher completion rate (54.8% to 61%), averaged more yards per attempt (5.5 to 8.9) and threw the same amount of TDs (7) without throwing a pick (Earle has two ).

Still, it shouldn’t matter who starts against the Panthers; The thundering herd was supposed to defend the homestead. Take Marshall’s moneyline, but Georgia State could easily cover the nine-point spread, so choose Under as the “safe” bet in this Fun Belt feature.

Forecast: Marshall 31, Georgia State 17

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