What the polls of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump look like three weeks before the election

Three weeks before Election Day, Kamala Harris is ahead of Donald Trump in the 2024 polls nationwide, while crucial swing states are still too close to call.

The race between Vice President Harris and former President Trump remains neck-and-neck in the final weeks of the campaign, with poll aggregators showing Trump closing in on Harris’ overall lead.

When it comes to the seven battleground states that could decide who wins the 2024 race, Harris and Trump remain essentially tied, with neither candidate beating the other by more than 2 points, according to an aggregator’s average.

Harris’ clearest path to victory in November would be to win the three blue wall battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, barring any surprise results elsewhere. Trump’s most efficient path to 270 Electoral College votes would be to win the Sun Belt swing states North Carolina and Georgia and flip Pennsylvania.

Newsweek emailed the Trump and Harris campaigns seeking comment.

National averages

Harris’ current national lead over Trump is 2.4 points (48.5 percent to 46.1), 538, according to the poll aggregator and forecaster.

This is a decrease of 0.2 points from the 2.6 national lead that Harris had over Trump on October 8th.

Pollster Nate Silver, who founded 538 and now uses a similar forecasting model, gives Harris a larger national average poll lead over Trump of 2.8 points (49.3 percent to 46.5 percent) in his latest update. Silver’s model also shows that Trump’s numbers improved by 0.2 points compared to last week.

The RealClearPolitics national average, which tends to favor Republican pollsters, has Harris ahead by 1.7 points (48.9 percent to 47.2 percent).

As of October 8, RealClearPolitics average poll results showed Harris with a 2-point lead over Trump.

The Decision Desk HQ/The Hill forecasting model currently gives Harris a 51 percent chance of winning the election overall and describes the race as exceptionally close.

Swing states

According to 538, Harris is currently 0.6 points ahead in Wisconsin, 0.7 points ahead in Pennsylvania, 0.8 points ahead in Michigan and 0.6 points ahead in Nevada. Trump is ahead in the final three battleground states of North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona by 0.9 points, 1 point and 1.8 points, respectively.

Harris is projected to win the election with 276 Electoral College votes, up from the current forecast of 538, barring any surprise results elsewhere.

Harris also has silver in the three blue wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by 0.8 points, 1.1 points and 1.1 points respectively, as well as 0.8 points in Nevada.

For silver, Trump beats Harris on average in North Carolina (plus 0.7 points), Georgia (plus 0.8 points) and Arizona (plus 0.6 points).

RealClearPolitics’ swing state poll differs. Trump is narrowly ahead of Harris in six of the seven key battleground states.

Trump leads in Arizona by 1 point, in Nevada by 0.2 points, in Michigan by 0.9, in Pennsylvania by 0.1 points, in North Carolina by 0.5 and in Georgia by 0.5 points.

Wisconsin is the only state where Harris beats Trump, according to the RealClearPolitics average, defeating the Republican by 0.3 points. In this scenario, Trump would win the Electoral College vote count by 302 votes to Harris’ 236 votes.

Current survey

A CBS News/YouGov national poll of 2,719 registered voters shows Harris with a three-point lead over Trump (51 percent to 48).

If you only look at the battleground states, Harris’ lead is reduced to 1 point overall (50 percent to 49).

The poll was conducted between October 8th and 11th and the results have a margin of error of +/- 2.3 percentage points.

An ABC News/Ipsos poll of 1,714 likely voters conducted between Oct. 4 and Oct. 8 found Harris has 50 percent support, compared to 48 percent for Trump. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

Elsewhere, an Ativote poll of 1,000 likely voters showed Trump with a one-point lead over Harris (50 percent to 49 percent). The poll was conducted Oct. 3-8 and had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.