Bills vs. Jets tips and predictions for MNF

A changing of the guard in East Rutherford could make the New York Jets look a little different when they host the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football.

New York fired head coach Robert Saleh before that Week 6 game, while also stripping offensive coordinator Nathanial Hackett of game-directing responsibilities and turning the offense over to assistant Todd Downing.

Downing’s approach could be a boon for the running game, as my Bills vs. Jets predictions focus specifically on rookie running back Braelon Allen.

I assess the spread, over/under totals and NFL player odds for Monday Night Football and provide my top NFL picks for the Bills at Jets on Monday, October 13th.

Bills vs Jets MNF Prediction

My best choice
Braelon Allen Over 8.5 Rushing Attempts (+116 at FanDuel)

My analysis
Braelon Allen may be behind fellow running back Breece Hall on the depth chart, but the first-year RB from Wisconsin was the more effective runner of the two in 2024. Allen is amassing 4.5 yards per carry (versus Hall’s 3.0 YPC). ) and there will be more action as Downing takes the lead on Monday night.

The promoted passing game coordinator and QB coach is actually better known for his relentless rushing attack (dating back to his time as OC at Tennessee), which interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich celebrated this week. New York currently ranks 27th in EPA per handoff with a success rate per run of just 37.9% (20th).

“First and foremost, this team has a strong running game,” Downing told the media. “We just haven’t seen it come to fruition consistently enough … but I think our guys are ready to answer the bell and make the quarter-turn adjustments that we need to make to get this thing on the right track.”

There is a possibility of causing damage on site on Monday evening. This Buffalo Bills defense is weak in the middle and lacks key components in run stopping. The Bills, who are 22nd in the EPA per handoff rankings and give up an NFL-high 5.2 yards per carry, were bullied two weeks ago by the Ravens’ dedication to the run, giving up 271 yards on the ground allowed.

In last weekend’s loss to the Vikings in London, Allen had a quiet day, largely due to the New York Jets quickly falling behind and having to play a lot of passing to catch up. He only carried the ball five times for 13 yards.

With Hackett dictating the plays, New York had the third-lowest ball percentage in the league (35.76%) for five weeks. Downing will bring more balance to the game, giving Allen a higher ceiling than some projections are predicting.

The rookie’s player models range from six rushing attempts to 10 carries in Week 6, with my number on Monday coming in just shy of Allen’s nine attempts. This support total was initially only 7.5 (over -128), with the overeffect driving the value upwards. I still believe there is value given the change in Gang Green’s offensive philosophy and the weakness of the Bills defense.

Same parlay between Bills and Jets MNF

Brealon Allen 25+ rushing yards

Breece Hall can land at any time

Nozzles +2.5

Allen will see an increased workload with Downing at the helm of the offense and the Bills getting beaten up on the ground.

Hall will also see an increase in touches and is always a threat to score on the ground or in the air.

This Jets defense is statistically the best stopping unit Buffalo has ever faced, with the Bills facing weaker teams earlier in the season.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Bills vs Jets odds

Bills vs Jets live odds

Bills vs. Jets opening odds

• Spread: Buffalo -2.5 | New York +2.5
• Money line: Buffalo -130 | New York +110
• Over/Under: Over 42.5 | Under 42.5

Odds courtesy of FanDuel.

Bills vs. Jets spread and over/under analysis

• New York opened between +2.5 and +3 for this Monday night game after last Sunday’s loss in London. When the team fired head coach Robert Saleh on Tuesday, the betting market actually moved towards Gang Green, with field goal spreads drying up and the odds on Buffalo dropping -2.5.
• The over/under total opened at 42.5 points and was reduced to 40.5 O/U on Sunday.
• Cover’s consensus shows that 64% of the spread picks fall on Buffalo, while 57% of the total picks fall on the over.
• This trip to MetLife Stadium will be Buffalo’s third straight road game following losses at Baltimore and Houston in the last two weeks.

Things to know about the “Bills vs. Jets” betting trend.

The Bills are 1-6 over/under in away divisional games since 2022, including the under at Miami in Week 2. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Jets.

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