Guardians vs. Yankees ALCS preview: Key matchup, how each team wins and series prediction

And then there were four. In two rounds of the 2024 MLB postseason, the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians have emerged from the American League field. The AL’s No. 1 and No. 2 seeds will now compete for a World Series berth in the ALCS.

With Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton hosting José Ramírez, Steven Kwan and the league’s best bullpen, it’s sure to be a can’t-miss baseball event starting with Game 1 on Monday in New York.

Let’s break it down.

#2 CLEVELAND GUARDIANS vs. #1 NEW YORK YANKEES

How they got here

Guardian: Not only did the Guardians beat the AL Central by a fairly comfortable margin, but they also won enough games to earn second place and a first-round bye straight to the ALDS, thanks in large part to another great game Season was dominated by the face of the franchise José Ramírez and a dominant bullpen led by closer Emmanuel Clase.

A rare clunker by Clase in Game 2 of the ALDS against the red-hot Tigers put Cleveland in a precarious position as the series moved to Detroit, where the Guardians were facing elimination after being eliminated in Game 3. But a timely go-ahead home run by David Fry in Game 4 and a memorable grand slam by Lane Thomas off Tarik Skubal in Game 5 propelled Cleveland to the ALCS for the first time since 2016.

Yankees: The Yankees rebounded significantly from their dismal 2023 season with their 21st AL East title and the best record in the American League, marking the first time since 2012 that New York entered October as the No. 1 seed. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto lived up to the hype as one of the more dynamic offensive duos the game has seen in years, and the pitching staff finished the regular season in the MLB’s top 10 in both rotation and bullpen ERA.

While the production beyond Judge and Soto has been disjointed, if not downright discouraging, at times this offseason, we’ve seen tremendous strides from players like rookie Austin Wells, trade acquisition Jazz Chisholm Jr. and super slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who showcased explosive potential have this cast. Stanton added to his outstanding record with a big series against Kansas City in October, helping the Yankees get past the Royals in four games.

Key match

How big is Cleveland’s bullpen advantage?

The Guardians entered October with one obvious superpower compared to the rest of the playoff field: a bullpen that ranked at or near the top in every statistical category imaginable. As expected, Cleveland leaned heavily on its relief corps to get past Detroit – to the point that some of its best weapons suffered the rare blip along the way. That said, just because Clase allowed nearly as many earned runs in the ALDS (4) as he did in the entire regular season (5), doesn’t mean the Yankees will be excited to see him come out of the bullpen.

Even in the late innings in front of Clase, it won’t be a walk in the park, especially if Cleveland takes an early lead. Considering he appeared in all five games of the ALDS against Detroit, Cade Smith’s elite fastball was finally introduced to the national audience – and in spectacular fashion, as the rookie right-hander struck out 12 of the 22 batters he faced , out of. Hunter Gaddis also had his moments, as did Eli Morgan, Tim Herrin and Erik Sabrowski. This is certainly not a one-man show with Clase in the ninth installment; Manager Stephen Vogt will lean on a number of these guys to get high-leverage outs as the series progresses.

But considering how well New York’s primary bullpen trio of Luke Weaver, Clay Holmes and Tommy Kahnle pitched in the first half of the season and through much of the second half of the season, it’s possible the Yankees have the personnel to get zeros with them Cleveland’s pen in play to score the later stages of games. With a larger and more impressive roster of starting players, New York shouldn’t have to ask quite as much of its backup players. So it will be more about delivering when their names are called than having Cleveland’s backups carry the load for entire games.

So far, the Yankees bullpen has done just that, combining to allow zero earned runs against the Royals in the ALDS. This matchup could still give Cleveland an advantage for now, but the gap certainly seems smaller than you might have expected a few months ago.

How they win

Guardian: Vogt has said all season that his team wins with its bullpen, and that likely won’t change now. But Cleveland also enters this series with a notable lead on both the basepaths and defense. The Guardians stole 60 more bases than the Yankees during the regular season and were significantly better at grabbing the extra base when opportunities arose. While they may not be able to keep up with New York in the slugging department, the Guardians could close the gap in run production with timely and aggressive baserunning and an outstanding defense across the diamond capable of shutting down potential Yankees rallies thwart.

It’s also important to note that these Guardians aren’t quite the small traders we’ve seen in recent years. After ranking 29th in home runs in 2022 and 30th in 2023, Cleveland’s 185 long balls in the regular season ranked 12th in the league in 2024. There’s more pop in this lineup now and Yankee Stadium is a much more homer-friendly stadium than Comerica Park or even Progressive Field, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Guardians start a few well-timed things in the Bronx to help them along , stealing a game or two on the street.

Yankees: Although hitters not named Stanton were fairly quiet against Kansas City, the ceiling for this Yankees offense remains significantly higher than the opponent’s. What the Yanks lack in speed on the bases, they make up for by simply being on base all the time and punishing opposing pitchers with gigantic home runs, as no team drew more walks or hit more things than New York in the regular season .

But while the easiest way for New York to overwhelm the Guardians would be to exploit its slugging and base advantage on offense, there is also a path to victory through run prevention. Cleveland’s offense is pretty tough to beat and has more power over the fence than in recent years, but these Guardians still aren’t reaching base at a particularly fast pace, and as their 20 straight scoreless frames against Detroit show, Did you do it? Bats tend to get freezing cold over long distances. If New York’s stellar pitching staff can take advantage of the Guardians’ penchant for chasing pitches out of the zone and keeping their best hitters quiet, the Yankees should be in. in this best-of-seven where there is more time for pure talent be in good shape than in a more condensed series.

Series prediction

Yankees in seven

We’ve seen these teams face off in October several times over the years, most recently in the 2022 ALDS where the Yankees came from behind 2-1 to beat Cleveland in five games. There are still quite a few names left on both rosters from this series, although mostly on the position player side. The most notable new characters are Thomas and Tanner Bibee for Cleveland and Soto and Carlos Rodon for New York.

The Yankees won both series against the Guardians during the regular season, winning two of three games in Cleveland in April and two of three games in the Bronx in mid-August. Both Cleveland victories came in extra innings, and the Yankees’ run differential was plus-15 in those six contests. The Guardians are certainly capable of pulling off an upset here, but star power and superior starting pitching give New York the advantage in what should be a great series.