Pakistan could become a player in the unfolding Middle East drama

Some of the actors in the escalating drama in the Middle East live either on Pakistan’s unstable borders or not far from them. Iran is one of Pakistan’s four immediate neighbors. She is involved in the creation and development of what she calls the “Axis of Resistance.” The Houthis, who challenge Saudi Arabia’s authority, operate in Yemen, which is a short distance from Pakistan and separated from the Balochistan coast by a narrow body of water. How will this drama unfold and how will the actors on stage adjust their positions over time? In pondering this difficult question, some analysts have turned to “game theory,” a branch of mathematics that predicts how actors in a game unfold their tragedies.

Game theory is a way to analyze the strategies that different players – be they military, business competitors or poker players – choose to achieve the best possible outcome for themselves. How Pakistan and India have managed their relations provides several good examples of how game theory has worked in the case of these two neighbors. A recent example of this was India’s bombing of camps in Pakistan’s northern areas that it believed were terrorist camps that New Delhi believed may have orchestrated the deadly attack on Indian forces in Kashmir. Pakistan responded by sending its fighter jets into Indian airspace without attacking any target on the ground.

Daniel Sobelman, a professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, uses game theory to understand unfair operations in the Middle East. His forthcoming book “Axis of Resistance: Asymmetric Deterrence and Rules of the Game in Contemporary Middle East Conflicts” adopts this approach. In his view, wars – both fighting and preventing – are essentially prediction games. Amanda Taub has applied game theory to understand how the current Middle East conflict is unfolding. She writes for the New York Times. In an article for the newspaper titled “The Impact of Game Theory on Israel, Iran and the Risks of Escalation,” published Oct. 5, she writes: “When it comes to war, each side must predict how the other will respond.” And by making a credible case that the costs of aggression would be too high to be worthwhile, even bitterly opposed enemies can deter catastrophic war.

When you factor in the support of the United States, there is no doubt that Israel is much stronger than Iran. To create some balance, the Iranians pursued the strategy of creating proxies in the region: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen. “Hezbollah in particular was a big part of this threat,” said Emma Ashford of Washington’s Stimson Center. “It said: ‘If you do anything against Iranian interests elsewhere in the region, Hezbollah will launch a massive missile attack from Lebanon. And you know you don’t want to cross that line’.”

According to the unwritten rules of the game, Israel’s recent attacks on Hezbollah should have resulted in a devastating response from the armed group. According to Sobelman, “There should have been thousands of Israeli deaths. High-rise buildings should have collapsed in Israel.” However, this did not happen partly because Israel had taken measures to weaken Hezbollah’s fighting power and partly because Tehran did not want to escalate the confrontation to the point where it became an all-out war .

Israel’s moves on various fronts in the Middle East occurred without Washington’s knowledge, even though they used American-supplied weapons. There were visible signs of American discontent. An unexpected development was the cancellation of the trip that Yoav Gallant, the Israeli Defense Minister, was scheduled to make on Wednesday, October 9th. The story by Missy Ryan and her colleagues, written for The Washington Post, appeared in the October 9, 2024 issue under the headline “Cancelled Israeli visit is a sign of tension ahead of expected backlash against Iran” provided an analysis of the tensions between America and Israel. There was hope among Washington officials dealing with Iran affairs that Israel would reveal its intentions in the Gallant-Austin talks. The two secretaries have developed a close relationship and have spoken more than 80 times in the few years the Biden administration has held power.

“While the two countries have coordinated closely, Israel has repeatedly carried out attacks on regional adversaries without prior notice to the United States, including a recent operation that targeted Hezbollah operatives with explosive devices,” the note referred refers here to the small bombs that were installed in pagers and cell phones and exploded when they were used. “U.S. officials have complained that such attacks could endanger U.S. troops in the region. Biden has now been criticized within his party for his stance towards Israel and the steady supply of arms from Washington. While Biden and his aides have supported Israel’s right to respond.” Iran: Biden has publicly called on Israel to avoid attacks on Iranian oil facilities that could destabilize world energy markets. U.S. officials have also advised Israel against attacking facilities linked to Iran’s nuclear program, which Israel has long viewed as an existential threat.

Using game theory, we may be able to identify possible Pakistani involvement in the conflict. One way to achieve this would be to deploy the United States’ large military presence in the region, including those stationed on the ships. There are three aircraft carriers and around 40,000 soldiers stationed in the region. If Israel comes under great, from its perspective, existential pressure, the USA could send its troops to the places where the threat to the Jewish state comes from. This could include a move into Iran to destroy the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRG) manpower and equipment. At that point, the authorities in Tehran could decide to withdraw their threatened troops to neighboring Afghanistan and Pakistan. They can do this without being invited by neighboring countries. If this were to happen, it is difficult to predict how the authorities in Islamabad and Tehran would react.