The Republicans’ chances of gaining important seats in the Senate three weeks before the election

With about three weeks left until this year’s election, key U.S. Senate races remain close as Republicans try to flip the upper chamber.

Democrats currently have a slim majority in the Senate, with 48 seats and three independents aligned with them. There are now 49 Republicans in the upper house.

Election forecaster 270toWin, whose interactive map is based on political analyst Larry Sabato’s election predictions, expects the GOP to have a 51-seat majority after the Nov. 5 election to the Democrats’ 48, including two independents. Another RacetotheWH election forecast from political analyst Logan Phillips includes an interactive map with a 51-48 Republican majority victory.

270toWin and RacetotheWH’s electoral maps include strong red and blue states, as well as states that lean Republican and Democratic. How are the candidates doing in the close races?

Montana

In Montana, Democrat US Senator Jon Tester is defending his seat against Republican Tim Sheehy. On 270toWin’s interactive map, Montana is currently leaning Republican. RacetotheWH has Montana with a Republican majority, with Sheehy having a 68.5 percent chance of winning, compared to Tester’s 31 percent chance.

On poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, Sheehy is 5.4 points ahead of Tester, with a poll average of 49.6 percent compared to Tester’s 44.2 percent.

Ohio

According to interactive maps from 270toWin and RacetotheWH, there is a fight in Ohio between Democratic US Senator Sherrod Brown and his Republican opponent Bernie Moreno. At RacetotheWH, Brown has a 65 percent chance of winning, while Moreno has a 35.3 percent chance.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Brown leads Moreno by 2.3 points (47.9 to 45.6 percent).

Arizona

In the Arizona Senate race between U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego, a Democrat, and Republican Kari Lake, 270toWin predicts the state will lean Democratic and RacetotheWH projects it will likely lean Democratic, giving Gallego a 92 percent chance of winning and gives Lake a 7.6 percent chance.

FiveThirtyEight has Gallego 7.6 points ahead of Lake (49.9 to 42.3 percent).

Michigan

Democratic U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers will face off in Michigan’s Senate election this fall. Through 270toWin and RacetotheWH, Michigan is trending Democratic. RacetotheWH gives Slotkin an 80 percent chance of winning, while Rogers has a 20.3 percent chance.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Slotkin is four points ahead of Rogers with 48.2 percent support, compared to 44.2 percent for the Republican.

Pennsylvania

According to 270toWin and RacetotheWH, there is also a Democratic lead in the Pennsylvania race between U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, a Democrat, and Republican Dave McCormick. RacetotheWH has Casey with an 84 percent chance of winning and McCormick with a 16.3 percent chance.

At FiveThirtyEight, Casey beat McCormick with 4.7 points (48.5 to 43.8 percent).

Newsweek reached out to the Democratic and Republican National Committees via email Sunday afternoon seeking comment.

Where are Republicans winning seats?

While it appears that more states with close races are leaning toward Democrats rather than Republicans, that doesn’t mean Democrats will retain control of the Senate. States that lean Democratic already have Democratic or independent senators. So if the Democratic candidates win, no seats will be added to their majority.

Meanwhile, Democrats are expected to lose West Virginia because current Sen. Joe Manchin, a Democrat and independent, is not seeking re-election in the red state.

270toWin and RacetotheWH believe West Virginia is a safe Republican state.

There are few polls in West Virginia, but according to a Kaplan Strategies poll conducted in early June, Gov. Jim Justice had 60 percent voter support, compared to 27 percent for his Democratic opponent Glenn Elliot. The poll surveyed 464 West Virginia voters and has a margin of error of 4.6 percent.

Meanwhile, RacetotheWH gives Justice a 99.7 percent chance of winning, while Elliott has a 0 percent chance.

If Republicans take West Virginia and Montana and keep the seats they already have, they would get 51 seats.

What’s going on in Nebraska?

While 270toWin has Nebraska largely leaning Republican, some recent polls have Independent Dan Osborn ahead of Republican U.S. Senator Deb Fischer, as most of them are Osborn’s campaign polls.

An Independent Center poll, which was not commissioned by either campaign, showed Osborn leading Fischer by five points (47 percent to 42 percent). The survey was conducted from September 27 to October 1 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 points.

Meanwhile, Fischer is 1.4 points ahead of Osborn with 43.5 percent of the vote, compared to 42.1 percent for Osborn in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

In RacetotheWH, the state is leaning toward the GOP candidate, giving Fischer a 76.6 percent chance of winning and Osborn a 23 percent chance.

Can Democrats flip any GOP seats?

The Democrats are trying to exert influence in the Republican strongholds of Texas and Florida by pouring money into the Senate elections there.

In an appearance at the National Press Club on September 26, Senator Gary Peters, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), said his party was making a “multimillion-dollar investment” in television advertising to win Senate elections in these states.

U.S. Rep. Colin Allred is trying to unseat U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is vying for U.S. Sen. Rick Scott’s seat.

But 270toWin suggests that Texas and Florida are voting for the Republican candidate. In RacetotheWH, Texas is leaning toward the Republican candidate, giving Cruz a 72.3 percent chance of winning and Allred a 28 percent chance, and Florida is leaning toward the Republican candidate, with Scott having a 76.9 percent chance of winning while Mucarsel-Powell has a chance of 23 percent.

According to FiveThirtyEight polling averages, Cruz leads Allred by 3.7 points (48.2 percent to 44.5 percent). Scott is now ahead of Murcarsel-Powell by 4.5 points (47.5 to 43 percent).