Lions vs. Cowboys tips, predictions and best bets – NFL Week 6

The Dallas Cowboys host the Detroit Lions at AT&T Stadium on Sunday in a rematch of a contentious December contest in which Dallas won 20-19.

Detroit is 3-1 this year and has a bye, but my Lions vs. Cowboys predictions are for the defense to get defensive in Week 6. Here are my top free NFL picks for this NFC showdown on October 13th.

Lions vs Cowboys Prediction.

My best choice
Cowboys team overall over 24.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

My analysis
The Dallas Cowboys won 20-17 on the road against the Steelers and their stingy defense. The result could easily have been more lopsided as they rushed for 445 yards but ended up 1-for-4 in the red zone and suffered three turnovers on a rain-soaked field.

The Detroit Lions are allowing 20.5 points per game, but that doesn’t accurately reflect how vulnerable their defense is. They were exposed in their previous contest when they gave up 133 rushing yards, 383 passing yards and a whopping 38 first downs to the Seahawks.

The Lions have generally been solid against the run but are bombarded through the air, ranking 21st in defensive dropback EPA and 27th in defensive dropback success rate.

Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb thrive against man coverage and the Lions are playing man at the fifth highest rate in the NFL and don’t have good enough DBs to pull it off. Detroit’s starting corners are Carlton Davis III, who allows a passer rating of 118.9 when targeted, and rookie Terrion Arnold, who has a coverage grade of just 48.8, which ranks 69th out of 74 qualified CBs.

The Cowboys left a lot of points on the field against Pittsburgh, but expect to finish their drives this week and eclipse their team record.

Same game between Lions and Cowboys

Cowboys team overall over 24.5

CeeDee Lamb Over 82.5 yards

Jared Goff Over 250.5 yards

Lamb led the league with 135 receptions for 1,749 receiving yards last year. Although his numbers have dipped a bit this season, he excels in strong team coverage and is poised for a big day against Detroit’s weak secondary. When the Lions came to Dallas last December, Lamb managed 227 yards on 13 catches.

All quarterbacks perform better when they are not under pressure, but the difference in Jared Goff’s game is extreme. Last season, he had the second-best passing grade (93.4) ​​in the NFL when flawless in the pocket, but ranked just 22nd under pressure with a grade of 51.0.

Goff should have plenty of time to find his receivers on Sunday as Dallas is decimated by injuries at edge rusher. DeMarcus Lawrence, Sam Williams and Marshawn Kneeland are all on IR, while All-Pro Micah Parsons looks like he will miss another game with an ankle injury.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Lions vs Cowboys odds

Live odds: Lions vs. Cowboys

Lions vs. Cowboys opening odds

• Spread: Detroit -3 (-115) | Dallas +3 (-105)
• Money line: Detroit -165 | Dallas +140
• Over/Under: Over 52.5 | Under 52.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Lions vs. Cowboys distribution and over/under analysis

• The Lions cashed in early, but once the spread moved to -3.5, the Cowboys came into play and moved the line back to the key number 3.
• At 52, that’s tied for the highest O/U of Week 6. Given two explosive offenses, Detroit’s subpar secondary and the Cowboys’ looming injuries, that makes sense.
• When these teams met in Dallas last December with similar lineups, the Cowboys were 4.5-point favorites and won a thriller 20-19.
• Fresh off a bye, the Lions are 3-1 on the year and against the spread. They have gone 29-12 ATS since the start of 2022.

Things worth knowing about the “Lions vs. Cowboys” betting trend.

The Cowboys have reached the over in seven of their last nine home games (+4.80 units / 48% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Cowboys.

Information about the Lions vs. Cowboys game

Lions vs. Cowboys latest injuries

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