Your guide to U.S. presidential election terminology: From the October surprise to popular votes and provisional ballots

The US presidential election is less than a month away and experts are predicting an “October surprise”. They also analyze voter sentiment in seven swing states in the US. As Election Day approaches, the focus also becomes more on the popular vote and the Electoral College votes. The biggest competition is between the two parties – Republicans and Democrats.

But what do these terms – October surprise, popular vote, swing state, etc. – mean? Here is a list of the most important terms related to the US presidential election that you need to know:

Who are Democrats and Republicans?

The US electoral system is called a two-party system. The Democratic and Republican parties are considered the most influential players in US elections. However, other parties also participate in presidential elections, including the Reform Party, the Libertarian Party, the Socialist Party, the Natural Law Party, the Constitution Party and the Green Party. These are often referred to as “third parties”.

Surprise in October

Survey experts are predicting a story that will turn the competition on its head in 2024. Just a few weeks before the November 5 election, they are expecting “the unexpected,” which could significantly change the outcome of the election campaign in recent weeks. This is called the “October Surprise.”

These are “those potentially game-changing election eve stories.” It is an unexpected event or information that becomes known immediately before the election and can turn the election campaign upside down. It could be anything – a scandalous revelation about a candidate or an outbreak of war or economic unrest.

It is clear why it is called a “surprise”. But why “October”? The US presidential elections always take place on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. In this scenario, any last minute surprise/spontaneous event would most likely only last a few weeks before the election – i.e. in October.

The term became popular in 1980. In 2016, both Donald Trump’s videotape describing his method of sexually assaulting women and FBI Director James Comey’s decision to re-examine Hillary Clinton’s emails were described as “October Surprises.” said Rutgers University.

In early October, many claimed that the deadly Hurricane Helene, which wreaked havoc in embattled states, could serve as an “October surprise.” This was assumed because such disasters could affect voter turnout in affected areas. It may also affect voters’ perceptions of their presidential candidates.

Ballots cast

A ballot placed by a voter in the ballot box, mailbox, or mailbox or submitted electronically for tally.

Double vote

When a voter chooses more than one ballot

Read the ballot

Ballot that was successfully accepted and initially processed.

Early voting

Voting before Election Day (November 5 of this year), in which the voter fills out the ballot in person at an election office or other designated polling place before Election Day. Early voting may also include voting by absentee ballot or absentee ballot before Election Day.

Swing states

Swing states or battleground states are states where either candidate could potentially win – that is, these states are tie-breakers because they face a close contest between two candidates. There are seven swing states among the 50 US states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and Minnesota. New to this series of swing states is North Carolina.

referendum

It is a vote cast by all people in a country. The popular vote is simply the candidate who receives the most votes overall from the American citizens who cast their ballot. However, it is not the popular vote, but the electoral college that decides the next US president.

It is possible to win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote. This happened in 2016, in 2000 and three times in the 19th century. In the 2016 presidential election, Republican Donald Trump won the Electoral College but lost a majority of the vote. That year he became US president.

Electoral College

Each US state has as many voters as it has members of Congress (House of Representatives and Senate). Including the three electors in Washington, DC, there are currently 538 electors in total. Each state’s political parties select their list of potential voters. To win the presidential election, a candidate needs the votes of at least 270 voters – more than half of all voters.

After citizens cast their vote for president, their vote is counted nationwide. In 48 states and Washington, DC, the winner receives all the electoral votes for that state. In most cases, a projected winner is announced on election night in November, after Americans have cast their votes. However, the actual vote in the Electoral College takes place in mid-December, when electors meet in their states. Tap to learn more about the Electoral College, its role and how it works

Ballot measure

A ballot measure is a law, issue, or issue that is placed on a statewide or local ballot in the United States for voters to decide on through an election. In addition to choosing between the Democratic vote (Kamala Harris and Tim Walz) and the Republican vote (Donald Trump and JD Vance), US votes can also include voting measures: statewide laws, issues or questions.

Down-bot measures/voting

The problem in US elections is a lack of down-ballot voting. Down-ballot measures are the measures on the ballot that voters opt for, other than choosing the U.S. presidential candidate. According to the US Vote Foundation, just under 50 percent of eligible voters cast a ballot, and a third or more of voters don’t bother filling out the entire ballot.

“The good news is that voters don’t have to vote for everything on the ballot for the votes they cast to be valid… But the bad news is that they don’t vote for state and local representatives and don’t.” About Voting on local issues — school bonds and referendums, and funding for police and social services — means missing the opportunity to have the broadest possible impact,” the foundation explains.

Red state, blue state

A tradition arose of calling states that typically favor Republicans “red” and Democrats “blue.” A “red state” tends to vote Republican and a “blue state” tends to vote Democrat. A swing state is a state that swings between Republicans and Democrats from one election to the next.

Provisional ballots

A provisional ballot is a ballot that is marked but not counted at the time it is cast. It is issued to a voter who cannot provide poll workers with the documents required by law. A provisional ballot allows a person to vote, but means their vote is placed in a separate “secret envelope” rather than in the ballot box.

State government websites explain that a provisional ballot provides an opportunity for people whose voter registration or eligibility to vote is in question. It is also used when a voter cannot or is not required to provide photo ID when voting in person. A voter receives a provisional ballot if questions arise about:

1. the voter’s eligibility to vote,

2. The voter’s eligibility to vote in a particular election, or

3. The voter’s eligibility to vote for a particular voting style.

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Sun Belt States

The Sun Belt includes 15 states spanning the Southeast and Southwest. These states have a sunnier or milder climate than northern states.

The New York Times reported that the Sun Belt represents a key group of states for Republican Donald Trump while also providing a potential second path for Democrat Kamala Harris to the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win. According to several other reports, Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democratic presidential candidate, has her sights set on the Southwest.

Bible belt

The Bible Belt of the USA is a cultural description of a part of the country where Christianity and religious traditions play a large role in everyday life. According to the Guardian, this belt tends to be Christian, conservative and vote Republican.

It includes Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee, North Carolina, Georgia and Oklahoma. The city of Tulsa, Oklahoma is known as the “Buckle” of the Bible Belt.

Are you looking for a word that isn’t mentioned here? Try to find the meaning in the US Election Assistant Commission glossary at this link.