Iowa State vs. West Virginia Prediction, Preview, Odds

Last week: Iowa State defeated. Baylor, 43-21; West Virginia defeated. Oklahoma State, 38-14

Series story: West Virginia leads 6-5-0

Last meeting: Iowa State 31, West Virginia 14 (2022)

Fun fact: Iowa State and West Virginia had never faced each other before the Mountaineers joined the Big 12 in 2012. Then the Cyclones and Mountaineers played every year from 2012 to 2022 before the two programs missed each other for the first time as expansion continued in 11 years.

Betting lines and odds for Iowa State vs. West Virginia

Opening line: Iowa State (-3)

Over/Under: 51.5

Key players

Cyclones in the state of Iowa

QB Rocco Becht

Sophomore quarterback Rocco Becht is becoming more comfortable as the face of Iowa State’s offense, and the players around him are benefiting greatly from that. In last week’s 43-21 win over Baylor, Becht completed 64% of his attempts for a season-high 277 yards and two touchdowns (1 INT).

S. Beau Freyler

Beau Freyler is a veteran of the Cyclones’ defense and has seen a lot of football during his time in Ames. He is third on the team with 29 tackles on the year and has one more interception. Freyler is a key part of an ISU secondary that has been very strong through five games and should continue to be so as the season progresses.

West Virginia Mountaineer

QB Garrett Greene

Last week against Oklahoma State, West Virginia quarterback Garrett Greene attempted just 15 passes and the Mountaineers topped 500 yards of offense. That’s because WVU ran for 389 yards and 6.0 yards per carry. Greene was a big part of that, hauling in 10 carries for 86 yards and 159 yards passing with one score to go. Iowa State will likely challenge Greene to win this game with his arm, and when he’s at his best, he’s certainly capable of doing so.

DL TJ Jackson

To beat Iowa State, the Mountaineers will have to ignore the Cyclones’ offense. To do this, they need to get to the quarterback and be disruptive in the backfield. TJ Jackson comes into play as defensive lineman. As WVU’s sack leader through five games (3.5 sacks), Jackson has shown he has the ability to disrupt this unit, and he’ll have to prove that again with ISU in town.

KEY STORIES

Cyclones in the state of Iowa

Can Iowa State take its offense on the road? This is pretty simple. Against FBS opponents this season, Iowa State is averaging 47.5 points per game at home. Away from home, the Cyclones scored exactly 20 points in both attempts. Sure, the defense was good enough to win both games, but there will come a time when more will be asked of the offense. That could be this week.

West Virginia Mountaineer

Can WVU take care of football? Sometimes football is a simple game. When you take care of the ball, things tend to go in your favor. West Virginia has turned the ball over eight times in 2024, and five of those turnovers were losses to Penn State and Pittsburgh. WVU can’t afford to give the ball away against Iowa State, but if they play a flawless game, there’s a good chance they can get a “W.”

PREDICTION: Iowa State 27, West Virginia 23

This feels like one of those classic “coin toss” games that could go a long way in determining what the Big 12 race looks like at the end of the year. Normally I would go with the home team in a situation like this, but I feel like Iowa State is starting to play dominant football and I think they will have a chance to be one of the best stories in college football End of a season. With that in mind, I think I’ll take the Cyclones to a narrow road win in Morgantown.