Lithuanians are voting in parliamentary elections, with many seeking change despite a strong economy

VILNIUS, Lithuania (AP) — Lithuanians voted Sunday in the first round of parliamentary elections, which could result in the center-right ruling coalition being replaced by the opposition Social Democrats and smaller center-left parties.

Despite economic successes, strict COVID-19 measures and an influx of migrants are casting a shadow over the government of conservative Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, who took office in 2020.

Although European Union-member Lithuania has recorded double-digit annual personal income growth and has one of the lowest inflation rates in the 27-nation bloc, many voters appear unimpressed.

“There is great disappointment and dissatisfaction among voters,” said Rima Urbonaitė, a political analyst at Mykolas Romeris University in Vilnius. “It is associated with numerous crises and shocks and cannot be compensated for by economic factors such as positive changes in purchasing power.”

Šimonytė has been criticized for strict measures during the pandemic. Many complained that their government had not done enough to help businesses during the lockdown. Others say thousands of people did not have adequate access to health services.

Šimonytė has also been sharply criticized for her treatment of migrants arriving via Belarus. Lithuania has its eastern neighbor as well as Russia orchestrating the influx of people, mainly from Africa and the Middle East.

A recent poll by pollster Vilmorus said that the Social Democratic Party led by Vilija Blinkevičiūtė would top the poll with twice as many votes as Šimonytė’s Homeland Union. In between would be Nemuno Aušra, a newly registered party of right-wing politician Remigijus Žemaitaitis, who was accused of anti-Semitic comments earlier this year.

However, no party would get more than 20% of the vote, forcing anyone who wants to govern to look for alliances.

The Social Democrats have ruled out an alliance with Žemaitaitis’ party, meaning three or four parties, likely small groups representing the political center, will be necessary to form a governing coalition.

“I’ve voted for the Conservatives all my life, but this year I’m thinking about giving my ballot to another good party, not them,” said Darius Mikalauskas, a 51-year-old teacher from Vilnius. “Šimonytė and the entire home union look battered and exhausted and they should spend some time on the bench.”

Analysts say a shift to the left would not bring significant changes to the foreign policy of Lithuania, which also borders the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad to the west. But the vote comes at a time when Russia’s war in Ukraine is fueling greater fears about Moscow’s intentions, particularly in the strategically important Baltics.

“In this country, the foreign policy course is mainly determined by the president,” Urbonaitė said. Earlier this year, President Gitanas Nauseda defeated Šimonytė in the presidential election, securing a second five-year term.

In 2020, Šimonytė led her home union to victory in the parliamentary election. It later formed a coalition with two liberal parties, the Freedom Party and the Liberal Movement.

Around 2.4 million people are entitled to elect 141 members of parliament (Seimas) for a four-year term in two rounds. On Sunday, 70 MPs will be elected via party lists, plus those in individual constituencies who manage to win more than 50% of the vote. The runoff election will take place on October 27th, when the majority of individual constituencies will choose between the two top candidates.