The center-left party is expected to win the parliamentary elections in Lithuania

Lithuanians will vote on Sunday in elections that are likely to result in a change of government, but much else remains the same, including strong support for Ukraine from NATO and EU member states and steps to strengthen defense policy.

The vote is likely to see center-left parties replace the ruling conservatives, and could also see a new populist party, whose leader is on trial over alleged anti-Semitic comments, enter parliament for the first time.

The Baltic nation of 2.8 million has been wary of perceived threats from neighboring Russia, fearing it could be the next target if Moscow succeeds in its ongoing war against Ukraine, which began in 2022.

Lithuania’s main parties agree on the need for strong support for Ukraine and maintaining or increasing defense spending, which currently stands at around 3 percent of GDP.

Opinion polls show that the Social Democratic Party, which last led the government from 2012 to 2016, is ahead of 14 other parties and coalitions and, according to the latest poll, will receive around 20 percent of the vote.

The ruling center-right Christian Democrats Homeland Union-Lithuania are expected to receive around 15 percent, with a total of six or seven parties likely to cross the electoral threshold.