Boise State vs. Hawai’i Prediction and Best Bets – NCAAF Tips for Week 7

It’s always a special treat when the island hosts a nightcap game to cap off another great college football Saturday.

That’s the case in Week 7 as the No. 17 Boise State Broncos (4-1) look to gain some traction in the Mountain West standings as they visit the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (2-3).

Although much of the national focus is on Ashton Jeanty, my Boise State vs. Hawaii predictions focus on Rainbow Warriors quarterback Brayden Schager. Read more in my college football picks for October 12th.

Boise State vs. Hawai’i prediction and best bet

My best choice
Brayden Schager Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

In case you haven’t heard, the Boise State Broncos have a pretty strong running back on their roster. Ashton Jeanty leads the nation with 1,031 yards gained on the ground, well ahead of Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson (771) in second place. He has already reached the end zone a whopping 16 times and is by far the most dominant force in the sport.

Wait, what is that? Sources tell me that the best choice for this item is actually not on one of Jeanty’s Week 7 props.

How is that? Allow me to explain.

Jeanty is a fantastic player and he changes the calculus of every game he takes part in. His props are drained to the brim, but we can target other players who are affected by his mere presence on the field.

The Broncos rank second in EPA per play and fourth in explosiveness, thanks largely to Jeanty’s otherworldliness on the floor (first in EPA per rush and rushing explosiveness). The Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors will need to pick up points to stay in this game given the firepower coming their way on the other side.

Boise was only too willing to allow other teams to move the ball, ranking 114th in EPA per game and 130th in explosiveness on defense. Those numbers don’t come close to being a playoff contender, and it’s thanks entirely to Jeanty that the Broncos remain in this discussion.

Hawaii will have to throw the ball to keep up, but that won’t be a problem considering the Rainbow Warriors have the highest pass rate (66.1%) in the country. Quarterback Brayden Schager is a four-year starter averaging 265.6 yards per game and appears to be up to the challenge.

Schager’s passing yardage rating is 247.5 and he has exceeded that number in eight of his last 13 contests. The script of the game calls for a decent passing volume, so give me the over.

Boise State vs. Hawaii – Match Game Parlay (SGP)

This is an interesting matchup as Hawaii has played well above expectations on defense and ranks 10th in success rate. The big boys up front caused disruption, ranking eighth in front-seven chaos, and the rush defense in general was a strength (33rd in PFF’s rush defense rankings).

This doesn’t necessarily mean that the Rainbow Warriors can take out Jeanty, but it does show that they will put up more resistance than most teams.

Meanwhile, Boise State’s defense wasn’t just bad, it was terrible. The Broncos have been largely underwhelming on that side in 2023 as well, so it’s concerning that the unit has regressed despite returning a ton of production.

Hawaii scores a lot of points here as they are a pass first and play out from behind unit. Timmy Chang’s team is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games and has shown plenty of pizzazz defensively, which is encouraging for such a big underdog.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Boise State vs. Hawaii odds

Boise State vs Hawaii live odds

Opening odds for Boise State vs. Hawaii

• Boise State vs. Hawai’i distributed: Hawaii -21.5
• Moneyline Boise State vs. Hawaii: Boise State -2,000, Hawaii +1,000
• Boise State vs Hawaii Over/Under: 61.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Boise State vs. Hawaii spread and over/under analysis

• Hawaii has been a coverage machine in conference play, going 7-2 ATS in its last nine games against Mountain West opponents.
• Boise State has exceeded the point total in seven of its last 10 games.
• In contrast, Hawaii has hit the minors in seven of its last 10 games.

What you need to know about the Boise State vs. Hawai’i betting trend

Hawaii is 7-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Find more college football betting trends for Boise State vs. Hawai’i.

Information about the game Boise State vs. Hawai’i

Boise State vs. Hawaii, recent injuries

Weather Boise State vs. Hawaii

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