DJT Stock: Trump Media Rises as Election Odds Reverse

On Friday, the stock rose 4.8% to close at $25.28, up 53% from last Friday’s closing price.

This coincided with a significant improvement in Trump’s chances of winning on top betting sites. For example, Vice President Kamala Harris led PredictIt last weekend, was tied on Wednesday, and was overtaken by Trump the following day.

Similarly, Harris had a slight lead at Polymarket on October 4, but lost it over the weekend, with Trump extending his lead the following week. They currently stand at 55% for Trump and 44.7% for Harris.

And in Kalshi, Harris and Trump were mostly tied, but mid-week Trump began to gain the edge and now leads 53% to 47%.

Meanwhile, renowned data scientist Thomas Miller, a professor at Northwestern University, also said Fortune’s Shawn Tully said Thursday that Trump’s chances increased sharply in the past week, giving him a two-vote lead in the Electoral College.

He claims that his model, based on political betting data, provides a much better forecast than tracking individual polls.

While there has been no dramatic reversal in national opinion polls and Harris is clinging to a narrow lead, polls in the key swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania show her lead shrinking, while Trump has retained the lead in other battlegrounds such as Georgia and North Carolina.

Trump Media shares have already had a wild ride this year, acting as a barometer for Trump’s election prospects. The stock shot up after Trump’s first debate with President Joe Biden in June and again after Trump survived an assassination attempt in July.

But after Biden resigned and Harris took his place in the presidential race, Trump Media shares plummeted. As the end of the lock-up period neared, another sell-off in shares occurred last month, allowing company insiders to sell their shares.

Then last month, Trump said he would not sell his stocks, dampening speculation that he would cash them out to cover legal or campaign costs. Since hitting its low point on September 23rd, Trump Media shares have risen 115%.

Trump owns about 59% of the outstanding shares, meaning his stake is now worth nearly $3 billion.