Jordan James, Ducks run game proves valuable

Our Ohio State vs. Oregon prediction gives you insight into how to bet on the biggest matchup of the young season. Will the Ohio State Buckeyes prove their mettle at the top of the Big Ten?

Or will the host Oregon Ducks qualify as Big Ten contenders themselves?

Ohio State vs. Oregon betting preview

All Ohio State vs. Oregon Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are as of Saturday, October 12, 2024. CFN spreads are from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

• CFN FPM spread
  Oregon-2
• Spread
  Ohio State -3
• Money line
  Ohio State -155, Oregon +130
• Over/Under
  54 points
• Playtime
  October 12, 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location
  Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon.
• Predicted weather at Kick
  73 degrees, sunny, three mile per hour wind
• Here’s how to watch
  NBC

Although the Vegas line has moved toward the College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter, the two lines are still five points apart. The Vegas line started with the Buckeyes as 4.5-point favorites and has fallen to three points.

MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator

The Football Playoff Meter has Oregon as a two-point favorite. The three-point limit is an extremely important number, so it would be surprising if it fell below it before Saturday’s game.

Ohio State vs. Oregon prediction

Oregon appears to have lost the strong efficiency it showed last season. Whether it’s the transition from Bo Nix to Dillon Gabriel, an adjustment period for the offense, or something else entirely, the decline is clear.

Last year’s Oregon team wasn’t particularly explosive, but it led the country in success rate and consistently moved the ball downfield. This season, that consistency hasn’t quite been there, and the Ducks’ difficulty shutting down teams they should be comfortable with is largely tied to Gabriel’s trouble in the red zone, more than his inability to complete those short, methodical passes meet.

Ohio State, on the other hand, hasn’t really been tested yet. On paper, both their offense and defense look top notch, but I’m curious to see if the defense can keep up when forced into stops in a close game.

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Dan Lanning failed to beat Washington in two tries last season, largely due to some failed fourth-down plays. I hope he sticks to his aggressive coaching style in big games because that will give Oregon an edge.

Statistically speaking, Oregon isn’t going to go 0-for-3 on fourth downs in every close game. If they can keep the drives alive, it will put a lot of pressure on Will Howard and the Ohio State offense to respond.

While Howard’s mobility is a factor, Ohio State’s offense thrives on big plays from its playmakers. Howard tends to make a few missed throws every game, and I trust Lanning will capitalize on those mistakes.

Call me an FPM believer, but I think the Ducks are taking this well

Forecast: Oregon 30, Ohio State 28

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