Historian who predicts election says October surprise is a ‘myth’

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Historian who has predicted 9 of the last 10 elections says the 2024 election triggered an “avalanche”.

Lichtman added that his system is based on the “fundamental forces that drive elections.”

“That is, it’s governing, not campaigning, that matters, and the keys measure the strength and performance of the White House party, and this whole idea of ​​a surprise in October is a big myth,” he said. “I always made my predictions beforehand and never changed them.”

The thirteen keys include whether:

◾ The White House party gained seats in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections.

◾ The incumbent president is running for re-election.

◾ The White House party avoids a primary campaign.

◾ There is an external challenger.

◾ The short-term economy is strong.

◾ Long-term economic growth was as good as in the last two terms.