Will escalating violence in the Middle East impact the US election? | News about the 2024 US election

With the US presidential election less than four weeks away, analysts warn that Israel’s increasing military campaigns in the Middle East could hurt the chances of Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris.

Foreign policy is rarely a top priority for U.S. voters. But Israel’s years-long war in Gaza and its intensive bombing of Lebanon have raised questions about the U.S. role in the conflict.

President Joe Biden’s administration has steadfastly supported Israel and divided the Democratic base, with some voters – particularly Arab Americans – turning against the party.

With Harris in a tough race against former Republican President Donald Trump, anger at the Biden administration could cause Arab voters in key states like Michigan to stay home in November.

“This is a constituency that was identified as Democratic by a two-to-one margin in the second term of the Obama administration,” Jim Zogby, co-founder of the Arab American Institute, told Al Jazeera. “The party identity is now practically at 38 percent.”

Much of that decline, he said, has to do with the Biden administration’s support for the war in Gaza, which has wiped out entire neighborhoods and killed more than 42,000 people, including many women and children.

This campaign was made possible by approximately $20 billion in U.S. arms assistance.

“It’s less about this group of voters becoming more conservative and more about them wanting to punish this government for what it has allowed to happen,” Zogby said.

“You get the feeling that the lives of Palestinians and Lebanese don’t matter.”

Eroding support

A September poll by the Arab American Institute found that Harris and Trump were virtually tied among Arab voters, receiving 41 percent and 42 percent support, respectively.

This number is actually a significant improvement for Democrats. When Biden ran for re-election, his support among Arab voters plummeted after the start of the Gaza war, falling to just 17 percent in October 2023.

Biden previously won 59 percent of the Arab vote in the 2020 presidential election campaign.

When Biden dropped out of the 2024 race after expressing concerns about the 81-year-old’s age in a debate, some voters hoped his successor, Harris, would bring a new approach.

But Harris has so far refused to break with Biden or call for an end to arms sales, even as a series of escalating attacks by Israel have pushed the Middle East to the brink of a larger regional war.

In a television interview this week, when asked if she had diverged from Biden on any issues, Harris replied: “I can’t think of anything.”

The Harris campaign also faced criticism during the Democratic National Convention in August after party officials barred a Palestinian-American speaker from taking the stage to express the suffering in Gaza.

“People are looking for the smallest gesture of humanity, and the campaign just won’t let them,” Zogby said. “They are making a mistake that will cost them votes.”

Swing states

While U.S. policy toward Gaza may not be the top priority for most voters, more than 80 percent of Arab Americans say it will play an important role in deciding their vote.

Many of these voters are concentrated in a small number of swing states that play an outsized role in deciding the country’s presidential election.

The embattled Midwestern state of Michigan, for example, has the second-largest Arab population in the country. It also has the highest proportion of Arab Americans of any state: nearly 392,733 people identify as Arab in a state of 10 million people.

According to polling averages, Harris only has a lead there of about 1.8 percent, which is well within the margin of error.

And her razor-thin lead in the state could be eroded by third-party candidates like Jill Stein, who has actively sought the votes of Arab and Muslim Americans in the region.

“The situation in Gaza has complicated Democrats’ chances in Michigan,” said Michael Traugott, a research professor at the University of Michigan’s Center for Political Studies.

“As we expect it to be close, it will be detrimental to Harris if a large portion of the state’s Arab community stays home on Election Day,” he added.

But Michigan’s Arab-American population is not a monolith, and there have been bitter disagreements within the community over how best to use its influence at the polls.

Some believe a Harris loss in Michigan would warn future candidates not to underestimate the influence of Arab voters.

Others see a second term for Trump, a pro-Israel hawk, as an unacceptable risk: The Republican had previously said Israel should “finish the job in Gaza” and vowed to protect foreigners involved in pro-Palestinian student protests. to deport.

One group trying to walk a tightrope between these perspectives is the Uncommitted National Movement, an organization that grew out of an anti-Biden protest movement.

During the primaries, the movement urged Democrats to vote “non-committal” rather than throwing their support behind the Democratic president.

Now, as the Nov. 5 general election approaches, the movement says it can’t support Harris — but it also opposes a second Trump presidency.

“As a Palestinian American, the current administration’s handling of this genocide has been beyond outrageous and demoralizing,” a spokesperson said in a video released this week.

“But the reality is that it can get worse. No one wants a Trump presidency more than anything [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu, because this is his ticket to wipe Palestine off the map.”

Expansion of the fighting

The final weeks of the presidential campaign coincided with the looming threat of further escalation in the Middle East, adding an element of uncertainty to the final weeks of the US contest.

At the beginning of October, Iran launched a ballistic missile attack against Israel in response to the murder of, among others, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.

On the same day, Israel launched a ground operation in southern Lebanon, in addition to its deadly airstrikes in the region. Israel is also expected to take further action against Iran.

Analysts fear that a massive Israeli retaliation could trigger a destructive war between Israel and Iran – a concern shared by many in the US.

A Pew Research Center poll in September found that 44 percent of Americans are extremely or very worried about fighting spreading to other countries in the Middle East. Forty percent agreed on the possibility of more direct involvement of U.S. forces.

Respondents who identified with the Democratic Party were also more likely to believe that Israel’s war in Gaza had gone too far and that the U.S. should do more to end it.

Laura Silver, deputy director of global research at Pew, told Al Jazeera that these results reflect the different views on foreign policy between Democrats and Republicans.

“Americans aligned with Republicans are much more likely to want the U.S. to supply arms to Israel and somewhat less likely to want the U.S. to play a diplomatic role,” Silver said.

She pointed out that younger and older people also have different approaches to the war in Gaza – and the Israel-Palestine conflict in general.

A February poll found that 36 percent of people ages 18 to 29 said the Biden administration would favor Israel too much in the current war, compared to just 16 percent of people ages 50 to 64.

But Zogby said Democrats have not yet recognized the changes taking place on the Palestine issue among key constituencies such as young people and communities of color.

“The pro-Palestine movement has become part of a larger focus on social justice,” he said. “The Democratic Party hasn’t changed in this regard, but the people who vote for them have. They don’t listen and they pay a price.”