Iran’s attacks on Israel suggest that ballistic missiles are overrated

• Israel and Ukraine have weathered repeated ballistic missile attacks.
• Ballistic missiles can strike with little or no warning.
• Ballistic missiles are deadly, but there is plenty of evidence that these weapons alone cannot win a war.

The fireworks were impressive. Explosions, flames and fiery streaks in the sky.

But after the start Hundreds What does Iran have to show for firing ballistic missiles at Israel in two separate bombings? The April attack, which involved 300 missiles and drones, was mostly intercepted by US, Israeli, British and Jordanian forces. October’s attack of 180 ballistic missiles resulted in a higher percentage of missiles penetrating defenses. Still, those who got through seem to have caused a relatively large amount of damage minor damage: some craters, one partially collapsed School buildingand multiple strikes in one Israeli Air Force base that is still operational.

Despite all the threats from Iran, Israel’s military, infrastructure and public morale remain intact. This resilience has similarities to Ukraine, whose population held out for two years Russian missile attacks but keeps fighting.

All of this raises the question: Is the threat of ballistic missiles overstated? The topic is more important than ever. Fifty years ago, the United States and the Soviet Union owned most of the world’s missile arsenal. Today they exist 31 nations that have ballistic missiles, as well as non-state groups such as Hezbollah. Since there are so many missiles in the world, they are likely to be used in future wars.

The threat of ballistic missiles – which follow a ballistic trajectory, rise to the edge of the atmosphere or into space and then crash like a cannonball – dates back 80 years, just before the start of the Space Age. In 1944, Nazi Germany unleashed the V-2is considered the world’s first guided ballistic missile. Nearly 3,000 V-2s were fired at targets in Western Europe, about half of them at Great Britain. The British public was no stranger to death from the air: they had already endured the bomber raids of the Blitz and the V-1 buzz bombs, the forerunners of today’s cruise missiles. But at least these weapons could be detected, giving people time to take cover or air defenses to shoot them down. The V-2 was something else: As it rose 60 miles to the edge of space, it slammed into its target without warning.

Hitler promised the German people that the “miracle weapon” would bring victory. Instead, the V-2 consumed significant resources but did not diminish the enemy’s war potential nor break popular support for the war. One problem was accuracy. The Germans estimated the probable circular error – a standard measure of how close 50% of ammunition lands to a target – to be close to three miles for the V-2. By 1945, U.S. B-17 bombers had a CEP of a quarter mile.

But the real problem was the payload. The V-2’s warhead consisted of just one ton of high explosive, fired from a weapon that could only be used once. A B-17 Flying Fortress carried four tons of bombs, a British Lancaster could drop seven tons – and these planes could fly dozens of missions. Admittedly, there were costs – and risks – for the crew. But the US and Britain launched attacks with a thousand bombers each: although the accuracy was far from perfect, the sheer number of bombs devastated cities and disabled critical infrastructure such as oil refineries towards the end of the war. But even this massive operation failed to break German morale.

This came in the 1980s “War of the Cities” when Iraq and Iran fired hundreds of ballistic missiles into each other’s urban areas. Despite tens of thousands of civilian casualties, morale failed in neither country and the Iran-Iraq War dragged on for eight years. In 2015 with Iranian support Houthis Rebels in Yemen began a bombing campaign against Saudi Arabia, including the use of ballistic missiles. Although this caused some damage to oil facilities, it was intended as political pressure against Saudi intervention in Yemen, rather than a full-scale attack on the kingdom.

It’s not that conventional ballistic missiles aren’t deadly, especially the modern versions. The V-2’s early gyroscopic guidance systems were replaced with more accurate ones Inertial guidance:A Minuteman ICBMs have a CEP of about 130 feet, which is fine for a nuclear warhead, but not for a precision strike on a small target. For advanced missile powers such as America and Russia, inertial guidance can be supplemented by other systems such as GPS and onboard radar linked to a terrain map. For example, US-made GPS-guided ATACMS missiles in Ukraine have proven to be quite accurate.

Ironically, this can lead to what one expert has described as this “Precision paradox”. Accuracy does not always equate to effectiveness: if a smart bomb misses its target, follow-up attacks to complete the mission can actually cause as much collateral damage as unguided weapons.

And therein lies that Attractiveness of ballistic missiles for less technologically advanced nations and militant groups. Even if they are incorrect, the mere threat of long-range missile fire could compel or deter an adversary. Iran has an estimated 3,000 ballistic missiles Variety of designs of varying accuracy, some based on the Soviet Scud or the North Korean Nodong. Tehran claims so latest rockets have a CEP of about 65 feet, a suspicious claim given the observed inaccuracy some rockets in the attack in April. A CEP of less than 100 feet can be enough to damage sprawling facilities such as air bases, ports, and oil refineries. This may not be enough against a specific target, such as a specific building. And to achieve this goal, these weapons must get past increasingly powerful air defense systems patriotAegis, Arrow and Iron Dome.

Even then, the question remains: Can ballistic missiles win a war? This reflects a debate from World War II, when Allied bomber commanders argued that bombing German cities would win the war without the need for ground troops. But even after the Allies were thrown off 2.7 million tons Given the large number of bombs in Europe, the Third Reich only surrendered when Allied tanks were on the streets of Berlin. Even over 7.5 million tons of ordnance did not force North Vietnam to stop the war against South Vietnam.

Iranian missiles have not stopped Israel from continuing its military campaigns Lebanon and Gaza, and that is also unlikely. Iran’s 3,000 missiles sound pretty impressive. But even if they were all fired at Israel at the same time, some would fail to launch, some would be intercepted, and others – how many, one can only guess – would miss their target. Ultimately, the number of high-explosive landings on Israeli soil would be less than a single Allied bomber raid in World War II.

Ballistic missile proliferation is a danger. With precise guidance systems, they can damage vital targets. With lower accuracy, they can serve as a terrorist weapon against cities. But they can’t win a war alone.

Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy Magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers University. Keep following him Twitter And LinkedIn.