Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians odds, tips and predictions

The Detroit Tigers And Cleveland Guardians Meet on Saturday to complete their best-of-5 ALDS and determine who will face the New York Yankees in the ALCS. Saturday’s first pitch at Progressive Field is scheduled for 1:08 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s 24/7 MLB odds Tiger vs Guardian Opportunities and meet our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: 2:2 draw | Regular season series: Cleveland won 7-6

Detroit won Games 2 and 3 of that series, but Cleveland forced a Game 5 with a 5-4 win Thursday in Detroit. The Tigers want to avoid losing back-to-play games for the second time since September 5th. Detroit’s late-season surge and early playoffs resulted in 15 wins in the club’s last 20 away games.

Cleveland has a 1-3 record in its last four home games, but that’s something of an anomaly when compared to the Guardian’s 50-30 mark during the regular season at Progressive Field. Cleveland has slashed just .214/.270/.336 (.605 OPS) in this series and has a lackluster .660 OPS since September 4th.

The Tigers at the Guardians planned starters

LHP Tarik Skubal vs LHP Matthew Boyd

Skubal (18-4, 2.39 ERA) made 31 starts in the regular season. He posted a 0.92 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 192 innings.

• Last appearance: No decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 8 K in a 3-0 win at Guardians Monday
• Career vs. Guardians (regular season): 2-2, 3.46 ERA (41 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 K
• According to ESPN, he has held current Cleveland batters to an overall OPS of .564
• Pitched 13 scoreless innings in the 2024 postseason; Dating back to September 12, he has allowed two runs in his last 31 innings

Boyd (2-2, 2.72 ERA) made eight starts in the regular season. He posted a 1.13 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 39 2/3 innings.

• Last appearance: No decision, 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in Monday’s 3-0 home loss to the Tigers
• Career vs. Tigers (regular season): 0-0, 0.00 ERA (4 IP), 0 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 2 relief appearances in 2022
• Played for the Tigers from 2015 to 2023
• Started the season at Illinois with an elbow injury before making his debut in Cleveland on August 13

Tigers at Guardians odds

Powered by BetMGM Sportsbook; Visit the USA TODAY sports scores and sports betting hub for a complete list of MLB odds. Lines were last updated Friday at 9:15 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Tigers -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Guardians +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
• Run Line (RL)/Against the Spread (ATS): Tigers -1.5 (+155) | Guardian +1.5 (-190)
• Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Tigers at Guardians tips and predictions

forecast

Tiger 5, Guardian 2

Money line

Skubal is the talent difference in this matchup. And while Boyd-plus-Cleveland bullpen isn’t a bad counterattack, the Detroit port has the stamina, the stuff and the competitiveness to carry a big part of that bottom line.

The lefty-lefty duel is a net win for Cleveland: Detroit has a top-five offense against the southpaws. But the Bengals are doing a little better with the bats. That hasn’t always been the case in this ALDS, as they went 4 of 34 with runners in scoring position. But the Tigers are doing what they have to do to create traffic on the bases.

The scope here is extremely thin, but DETROIT (-120) is the value side of this competition.

Running Line/Against the Spread

This is where more juice is added to the equation and the bet value is negated. HAPPEN.

Over/Under

The run total is extremely low here due to the details on the mound, including a lockdown relief corps from the Guardians. But there are enough hidden scoring advantages that the over is tight.

Much emphasis is placed on both starting players taking a four-day break. Yes, their numbers decrease slightly when you look at the career breakdown, but in Skubal’s case, he threw frequently on such a break in 2024, and his 2023-24 numbers on short rest show significant improvement compared to his previous years.

Where a little offense comes into play would be Cleveland potentially seeing Skubal through the order for a third time. The Guardians have shown above-average upside in such situations. Add to that the fact that both teams have decent production changeups (both starters usually have a lot of changeups) and that the Tigers have better numbers against fly-ball pitchers (which Boyd is), and there’s plenty of reason to call this game To tend towards the OVER 6 (-105).

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