Recent deadly attacks on ships in the Black Sea could deter commercial traffic, analysts warn

After three cargo ships were hit in Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian ports this week, killing at least 10 people and wounding several others, maritime analysts warn that ship operators could begin denying passage to this stretch of the Black Sea because of the increased threat.

““If the attacks continue, some companies will ultimately be forced to reconsider their policies on calls to Ukraine,” said Tomas Alexa, senior analyst for Europe at Amberya company that assesses and manages maritime risks.

“It seems there is a change in the modus operandi [for Russia] … there is a green light to attack the ships in the harbor directly.”

As a result of the strikes, which took place over five days this week, premiums for war risk insurance – a fee shippers must pay when transiting through high-risk areas – have risen by as much as 30 percent in this section of the Black Sea, Alexa said.

Russian officials and some state-affiliated media have claimed the ships were attacked because they were carrying ammunition and military equipment.

Ukraine and at least one of the shippers dispute these claims, saying all the ships were exporting commercial goods.

Could affect exportability

Ukraine fears this could affect its ability to export its agricultural products, including grain and corn, along a temporary export corridor.

After Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grains InitiativeFollowing an agreement negotiated by the United Nations and Turkey to establish a humanitarian shipping corridor, Ukraine established its own temporary route.

Instead of crossing the sea directly, the ships now meander along the coasts of two NATO countries, Bulgaria and Romania, on their way to Ukrainian ports.

Three different ports were hit in this week’s attacks.

The Russian Defense Ministry said it attacked a cargo ship in Pivdennyi, Ukraine, on Oct. 6 because it claimed the St. Kitts and Nevis-flagged ship was carrying ammunition supplies from Europe.

The ministry published a grainy black and white video This appeared to have been captured by a surveillance drone and claimed the footage showed a large explosion resulting from the detonation of ammunition.

Ukraine denies these claims and says the ship was transporting 6,000 tons of corn.

The ship Paresa belongs to AK Shipping, a company based in Greece.

Syrian, Indian nationals on board with Ukrainians

trade windsa publication focused on global shipping, spoke to the company’s owner, who denied Russia’s claims and provided documents showing that the company contracted to transport Ukrainian grain in October on behalf of Swiss customers.

Russia does “such despicable things as attacking civilian infrastructure and is not afraid to directly attack ships flying foreign flags,” said Oleksandr Kharlov, first deputy head of the Odessa regional military administration, in an interview with CBC News.

“Unfortunately, our citizens, port infrastructure workers … who have nothing to do with military affairs or the defense of our country are dying.”

All of the victims killed in the attacks were Ukrainian citizens, but among the wounded were nationals from Syria and India who worked aboard the ship Optima, which was damaged in an attack on the port of Odessa on October 7.

The third attack occurred on October 9 in the port of Chornomorsk.

The attack damaged a Panamanian-flagged container ship, the Shui Spirit, and killed at least 10 Ukrainians.

The city of Odessa marked a day of mourning Friday to honor not only the victims of the port strikes, but also four who were killed Thursday night in a building hit by a Russian attack.

No media access to the port

Media access to Odessa’s ports was not granted after the attacks, but Ukrainian officials have released photos they say show the aftermath and prove Russia has targeted civilian infrastructure.

One of the images shows destroyed shipping containers and boxes of Christmas decorations scattered on the ground.

Alexa says that while his analysis company cannot completely rule out that the ships were involved in arms deliveries, there is no evidence of this from Russia.

“Our argument is that Russia has decided that it really needs to reduce the number of ships calling at Ukraine,” he said.

Ukraine, one of the world’s largest wheat and corn growers and a major supplier of sunflower oil, has achieved this increase its exports Use of the temporary Black Sea route, which is an important source of income for Kyiv.

But Alexa says these recent attacks will likely make some shippers traveling the route more cautious.

Similar risk for Russian-controlled ports

Since the beginning of the large-scale invasion of Russia on February 24, 2022, there have been cases of ships changing crews before entering the Black Sea because some on board did not want to make the journey.

Alexa says businesses that have already left the area but are considering returning may be postponing their plans for now.

In one Risk discussionAmbrey concluded that these recent attacks also pose an increased threat to ships operating in Russian-occupied territories and ports due to the possibility that Ukraine could retaliate.

The briefing said Russia could continue to target merchant ships under the pretext of supplying weapons.

It notes that the only way to counter such claims is to allow Russian forces to inspect ships, as they have done under the UN-backed Humanitarian Grain Corridor, a measure that Ukraine is likely to object to will not agree.