Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have a close election: WSJ poll | News about the 2024 US election

Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican rival Donald Trump are in a dead heat for the presidency in the United States less than a month before the vote, a new Wall Street Journal poll shows.

According to data released Friday, the vice president and former president are within two percentage points of each other in six of the seven battleground states that will ultimately decide the next president.

While Harris led the poll in the states of Arizona, Georgia and Michigan, Trump was ahead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Nevada. All results are within the margin of error except for Nevada, where Trump leads by 5 percent in the WSJ poll.

The newspaper said it surveyed 600 registered voters per state between September 28 and October 8.

US elections are not won nationwide by a popular vote. Rather, candidates in individual states compete for electoral college votes.

It is similar to a points system in which each state is worth a number of points proportional to the size of its population. In all but two states – Maine and Nebraska – the winner receives all Electoral College votes.

Most states will almost certainly agree with one party. For example, a Democratic victory in California and Vermont is often predicted after polls close, while states like Oklahoma and Alabama are Republican strongholds.

The Battleground States

That leaves only a handful of states with close and competitive elections. These are called swing states. In this round, all eyes are on the seven states surveyed by the WSJ.

In 2016, Trump won the presidency despite losing the popular vote by defeating Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in most battleground states.

According to a Pew Research Center poll released Friday, Harris is ahead by one point nationally – 48 percent to Trump’s 47 percent.

The results of US election polls have fluctuated in recent months. While Trump had a significant lead over Joe Biden in almost all polls earlier this year, Democrats received a boost after the US president resigned and was replaced by Harris as the party’s nominee.

A Morning Consult poll in September showed Harris leading Trump 51 percent to 46 percent. But the former president appeared to regain some support amid concerns about the economy and unrest in the Middle East.

Election polls in the USA have also been far off the mark in the past. For example, many polls had suggested that Clinton was poised for a comfortable victory after her loss to Trump in 2016.

Still, several polls this year appear to agree that the U.S. is headed for a close presidential election next month.

Senate race

On November 5th, control of the Senate and the House of Representatives will also be at stake.

A New York Times poll Friday predicted bad news for Democrats’ hopes of defending their narrow majority in the Senate.

Democrats currently control the 100-member chamber with 51 seats, including four independents who caucus with the party.

But the Times poll found Democrats are likely to lose a potentially crucial seat in a Republican-leaning state.

Republicans were already expected to flip a Senate seat in West Virginia – where conservative Democratic incumbent Joe Manchin is not running for re-election.

However, the Times poll found Democratic Sen. Jon Tester trailing his Republican opponent by eight percentage points in rural Montana, where Trump won handily in 2016 and 2020.

Democrats will also aim to retain Senate seats in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona and Nevada, but they hope to challenge Republican incumbents in Texas and Florida.

A Republican-controlled Senate could prove a major hurdle for Harris if she wins in November.

Beyond its legislative powers, the Senate is tasked with confirming the appointments of judges and Cabinet members, which would allow Republicans to pressure Harris over who she chooses for her governing team if elected.