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Voter registration trends in Arizona could influence the 2024 election

By Hudson Brooklyn
Voter registration trends in Arizona could influence the 2024 election

PHOENIX — When Joe Biden won Arizona in 2020, it was the first time in a generation that a Democrat claimed the state at the presidential level.

It was a narrow victory – 10,457 votes – that at first glance Vice President Kamala Harris could repeat in 2024.

But shifts in voter registration over the past four years could impact that razor-thin margin and influence the outcome of the election between Harris and former President Donald Trump this fall.

“Republicans have continued to maintain their numerical dominance over Democrats even though Republican candidates have lost many of their elections,” said Samara Klar, a professor at the University of Arizona School of Government and Public Policy who studies political attitudes and behavior.

There are 4.3 million registered voters in Arizona for the 2024 election, a 6% increase from just before the 2020 election. That growth pales in comparison to the jump between, according to an analysis of voter registration data by the Arizona Republic, part of the USA TODAY network In 2016 and 2020, when voter rolls grew by 23%.

Republic’s analysis is based on voter data collected by L2, a research firm that compiles demographic information on registered voters across the country.

Republicans have a lead in registration

Arizona’s Democratic Party is losing ground, Republicans are holding steady and a growing share of voters are registering without party affiliation.

Harris didn’t change that dynamic when she became the Democratic presidential nominee. In fact, more Republicans than Democrats registered to vote after Harris’ nomination.

Harris also did not inspire women to register more than usual compared to men, making the overturn of Roe v. Wade the only event in recent history to result in a brief surge in registrations among Arizona women.

Republicans’ lead over Democrats has grown since 2020, putting the party at about the same level as it was in 2016, when Trump was elected. While the Republican Party holds about 35% of all registered voters, Democrats’ share has increased from 33% in 2020 to 29% today.

Nonpartisan registration increased from about 25% to 29%.

This is welcome news for Trump, who lost the 2020 election in Arizona by less than one percentage point.

A net change like this “toward Republicans in voter registration is a big difference in terms of the composition of the electorate this year,” said Jeff Glassburner, a pollster at Peak Insights who has worked on GOP campaigns in Arizona.

The Democratic voter registration deficit is a worrying trend for those on the left, including Democratic political strategist Stacy Pearson. This comes despite Democrats winning both Senate seats, the governor’s office, the attorney general’s office and the secretary of state’s office during the Trump era.

“I literally wake up at 3 a.m. trying to figure out: Are these just people who are frustrated with the two-party system and registered as independents? “Are they dissatisfied Democrats who moved from California and registered as independents?” Pearson said.

Because fewer new voters registered as Democrats, more existing Democrats dropped their party affiliation than Republicans, according to an analysis of Republican voter registration data.

About 136,000 Democrats dropped their party affiliation, compared to 103,000 Republicans who did the same. Many of them simply became bipartisan: about 84,000 Democrats and 67,000 Republicans.

But since President Joe Biden’s election, 37,000 Democrats have changed their party affiliation to Republican, while only about 19,000 Republicans have become Democrats.

Because Democrats are at a partisan disadvantage, Harris needs to focus on people who register without party affiliation, Pearson said. The vice president is working to appeal to them and Republicans fed up with Trump by highlighting Republican advocates like former Sen. Jeff Flake and building a coalition within the Mormon Church.

“The bill is the bill, and for Democrats to be successful nationally, a larger share of independents must vote for Democrats to offset that loss,” Pearson said.

Republicans attribute their party advantage in part to Biden’s unpopularity. The Democratic president was trailing Trump in polls in Arizona and across the country before dropping out of the race; Voters said they were concerned about his age and frustrated about the economy and inflation.

“The Republican registration advantage is likely an antidote to Biden’s numbers being unpopular,” said Chad Heywood, former executive director of the Arizona Republican Party. “Any time you look at the incumbent president, there is usually a reaction to voter sentiment that you see in the registration data.”

Generation Z is preparing to cast its first votes

According to an analysis by the Republic, more than 187,000 young people are registered to vote in their first presidential election.

That’s about 37,000 fewer newcomers than in the 2020 election.

Polls in Arizona show Harris performing better than Trump among voters in this age group.

“Voters under 30 are more likely to choose Harris than Trump. This gets bigger the younger you get, especially for younger women,” Klar said. “Younger women are particularly likely to support Harris, but are largely independent.”

Independent voters in Arizona tend to be younger and include more Hispanic voters, Klar said. This could be because voters feel alienated from the major parties and the polarization in politics.

“If you’re 18 and don’t feel like either party represents you, you’re much more likely to simply identify as an independent and then perhaps vote for the candidate who best represents your views,” said Klar.

The share of Hispanic voters continues to grow

Hispanic voters are steadily increasing, according to an Arizona Republic analysis. The group made up just 18.5% of registered voters in 2016. That percentage rose to 20% in 2020 and is now at 21.6% in 2024. There was no notable change among Black people registered to vote in Arizona.

Harris leads Trump among Hispanic voters, but a recent poll by The New York Times and Siena College found the vice president has lost some support among that group in the last month.

“If you look at national trends, Republicans have done better with Hispanic voters in recent election cycles, and so I don’t know if it’s a boon for Democrats in the way that it might have been in the past,” Heywood said.

In fact, Democrats are losing ground among the Hispanic population as well as the rest of the population. One in three voters who switched from Democrat to Republican from 2020 to present were Hispanic.

In 2020, 47% of Hispanic voters were registered Democrats, compared to 16% registered Republicans.

Today, only 40% of Hispanic voters are registered Democrats and 18% are registered Republicans.

Non-partisan affiliation is becoming increasingly popular: in 2020, 31% were non-partisan, today it is 37%.

Enrique Davis Mazlum, Arizona director of the Latino political group UnidosUS Action Fund, noted that Hispanic voters are a young group of voters in the state.

“It’s a very young group of voters,” Mazlum said. “It’s a really large portion of Latinos who will be voting for the first time.”

Don’t blame the transplants in California

Arizona’s population has grown significantly over the past decade and Phoenix is ​​one of the fastest-growing cities in the country. But the influence of voters moving to Arizona from other states may be exaggerated, Klar said.

Arizona, for example, did not grow enough in the last round of redistricting to gain another congressional seat. And when Klar surveys the state, she asks voters when they moved here.

“It’s a very common theory that it’s all these newcomers who are changing the political landscape of the state. “I don’t actually see much evidence that it has anything to do with newcomers,” Klar said.

“A bigger factor is really changes within Arizona,” Klar said. “The political trends have more to do with the people of Arizona than the people moving here.”

Klar said the state’s red, rural counties are losing population as more people concentrate in the Phoenix suburbs and Maricopa County in general.

Maricopa County is the most populous county in Arizona. It makes up about 60% of Arizona’s registered voters. The county has nearly 2.6 million registered voters. The partisan makeup of the county’s voters is 35% Republican, 32% Independent and 29% Democrat.

The leaders of the Republican and Democratic state parties each declined interviews about the changing voter registration landscape. Arizona GOP Chairwoman Gina Swoboda said in a written statement that “our momentum is undeniable” despite unaffiliated voters outperforming both parties.

“Arizona Republicans have overtaken Democrats since 2020, and we are not slowing down,” Swoboda said.

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