Ohio State vs. Oregon score prediction by an expert football model

One of the Big Ten’s newest rivalry games begins under the lights in one of the toughest stadiums in the country when No. 3 Oregon hosts No. 2 Ohio State in Week 7 of college football on Saturday night. Let’s look at the latest prediction for the game, which comes from an expert model that determines the winners.

Both are 5-0 overall and 2-0 in Big Ten play, but each will be by far the biggest challenge to the other on both sides of the ball in this big matchup.

Ohio State pulverized its non-conference opponents but was slowed early by Iowa’s tough defense before eventually pulling away, finishing 1st in the FBS in scoring defense by allowing less than a touchdown per game, and 4th in scoring offense, averaging 46 points.

Oregon won its first two games by a total of 13 points, but rebounded in recent weeks to beat its first three Big Ten opponents by an average of 26 points, despite some inconsistency on both sides of the ball due to questions on the offensive line.

What do the analytics suggest for the matchup?

To do that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Ohio State and Oregon will fare in this Week 7 college football game.

So far the models give the road team a slight advantage in this game.

SP+ predicts Ohio State will defeat Oregon by a projected score of 29-26 and win the game by an expected margin of 2.9 points.

The model gives the Buckeyes a slight 57 percent chance of an overall win against the Ducks.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far the SP+ model is 154-141-3 against the spread with a win ratio of 52.2.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Ohio State is a 3.5-point favorite against Oregon.

FanDuel lists the total score for the game at 54.5 points.

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -155 for Ohio State and +135 for Oregon.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

According to the latest spread consensus picks, bettors are almost in agreement when it comes to scheduling the game.

But the Ducks are getting a little more support, with 52 percent of bets pointing to them either winning the game in an upset at home or keeping things under the line.

The other 48 percent of bets assume Ohio State will win the game and cover the spread.

Most analytical models give the Buckeyes a slight edge over the Ducks in this game.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Ohio State is projected to win in 64.1 percent of the FPI computer’s recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Oregon as the expected winner in the remaining 35.9 percent of Sims.

According to the model’s latest projection, Ohio State is projected to be 5.3 points better than Oregon with the current makeup of both teams on the same field.

More… Ohio State vs. Oregon Prediction: What the Analytics Say

Ohio State ranks first among Big Ten teams with a 91.2 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.6 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model gives Oregon an overall win projection of 10.4 games and puts the team in second place in the conference with a 65.4 percent chance of making the playoffs.

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 4:30 p.m. PT
TV: NBC Network

More: Ohio State vs. Oregon prediction: Who will win and why?

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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